Thursday, Sep 10

Priced Sep 10, 2026, 4:42 PM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

ML, total, and run line when signals stack — best book price.

COL @ NYY

ML W

NYY ML -325

Best available · 71.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 71% NYY (-325), and NYY wins 57.2% vs COL 37.9%.

Run line L

COL +2 -117

Best available · 53.1%

COL covers the run line 53.1% vs NYY 49.7%. Taking points (+2) at -117.

PIT @ CHW

Total L

Over 7.5 -118

Best available · 68.0%

Total: Covers consensus 68% over 7.5. PIT over 53.6% and CHW over 56.6%.

Run line L

CHW +1.5 -187

Best available · 57.9% · lean only (past -160)

CHW covers the run line 57.9% vs PIT 47.9%. Taking points (+1.5) at -187.

TB @ ATL

Run line L

TB +1.5 -192

Best available · 54.1% · lean only (past -160)

TB covers the run line 54.1% vs ATL 53.1%. Taking points (+1.5) at -192.

CLE @ MIN

Run line pending

MIN +1.5 -172

Best available · 52.1% · lean only (past -160)

MIN covers the run line 52.1% vs CLE 49%. Taking points (+1.5) at -172.

HOU @ PHI

Run line W

HOU +1.5 -131

Best available · 51.7%

HOU covers the run line 51.7% vs PHI 41.5%. Taking points (+1.5) at -131.

KC @ BOS

Run line pending

KC +1.5 -137

Best available · 49.7%

KC covers the run line 49.7% vs BOS 47.6%. Taking points (+1.5) at -137.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

1–2

Day

5–5

Last 10

10–10

Last 20

0 / 1 / 3

ML / totals / RL

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on run lines) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

PIT @ CHW Over 7.5

COL @ NYY COL +2

HOU @ PHI HOU +1.5

KC @ BOS KC +1.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · Total L

Over 7.5 -118

PIT @ CHW · 68.0%

PIT 2–0 CHW (2)

Total: Covers consensus 68% over 7.5. PIT over 53.6% and CHW over 56.6%.

#2 · Run line L

COL +2 -117

COL @ NYY · 53.1%

COL 3–10 NYY

COL covers the run line 53.1% vs NYY 49.7%. Taking points (+2) at -117.

#3 · Run line W

HOU +1.5 -131

HOU @ PHI · 51.7%

HOU 2–1 PHI

HOU covers the run line 51.7% vs PHI 41.5%. Taking points (+1.5) at -131.

#4 · Run line pending

KC +1.5 -137

KC @ BOS · 49.7%

no game

KC covers the run line 49.7% vs BOS 47.6%. Taking points (+1.5) at -137.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	Total	Over 7.5 PIT @ CHW	-118	—	68.0	PIT 2–0 CHW (2)	L	Total: Covers consensus 68% over 7.5. PIT over 53.6% and CHW over 56.6%.
2	Run line	COL +2 COL @ NYY	-117	—	53.1	COL 3–10 NYY	L	COL covers the run line 53.1% vs NYY 49.7%. Taking points (+2) at -117.
3	Run line	HOU +1.5 HOU @ PHI	-131	—	51.7	HOU 2–1 PHI	W	HOU covers the run line 51.7% vs PHI 41.5%. Taking points (+1.5) at -131.
4	Run line	KC +1.5 KC @ BOS	-137	—	49.7	no game	pending	KC covers the run line 49.7% vs BOS 47.6%. Taking points (+1.5) at -137.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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