← NFL picks · Week 2

Sunday, Sep 20

Priced Sep 15, 2026, 6:06 PM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 6–5

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

6–5

Day

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

0 / 8 / 3

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
MIA @ SF SF -13.5
SEA @ ARI ARI +4.5
LV @ LAC LV +6.5
MIN @ CHI Over 48.5
NO @ BAL Over 46.5
CLE @ TB Over 40.5
CIN @ HOU Over 46.5
PIT @ NE Under 41.5
WSH @ DAL Over 50.5
MIA @ SF Under 45.5
SEA @ ARI Under 41.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · Spread W

SF -13.5 -105 · DraftKings

MIA @ SF · 100.0%

MIA 13–35 SF

SF covers the spread 100% vs MIA 0%. Laying points (-13.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#2 · Spread L

ARI +4.5 -115 · DraftKings

SEA @ ARI · 100.0%

SEA 31–7 ARI

ARI covers the spread 100% vs SEA 0%. Taking points (+4.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#3 · Spread W

LV +6.5 -105 · DraftKings

LV @ LAC · 100.0%

LV 26–14 LAC

LV covers the spread 100% vs LAC 0%. Taking points (+6.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#4 · Total points L

Over 48.5 -118 · DraftKings

MIN @ CHI · 73.0%

MIN 9–3 CHI (12)

Total: Covers consensus 73% over 48.5. MIN over 100% and CHI over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.

#5 · Total points L

Over 46.5 -118 · DraftKings

NO @ BAL · 67.0%

NO 24–17 BAL (41)

Total: Covers consensus 67% over 46.5. NO over 100% and BAL over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.

#6 · Total points W

Over 40.5 -115 · DraftKings

CLE @ TB · 59.0%

CLE 23–19 TB (42)

Total: Covers consensus 59% over 40.5. CLE over 100% and TB over 100%. Best -115 at DraftKings.

#7 · Total points L

Over 46.5 -108 · DraftKings

CIN @ HOU · 59.0%

CIN 20–6 HOU (26)

Total: Covers consensus 59% over 46.5. CIN over 100% and HOU over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#8 · Total points W

Under 41.5 -108 · DraftKings

PIT @ NE · 59.0%

PIT 3–20 NE (23)

Total: Covers consensus 59% under 41.5. PIT under 100% and NE under 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#9 · Total points W

Over 50.5 -108 · DraftKings

WSH @ DAL · 56.0%

WSH 20–37 DAL (57)

Total: Covers consensus 56% over 50.5. WSH over 100% and DAL over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#10 · Total points L

Under 45.5 -112 · DraftKings

MIA @ SF · 54.0%

MIA 13–35 SF (48)

Total: Covers consensus 54% under 45.5. MIA under 100% and SF under 100%. Best -112 at DraftKings.

#11 · Total points W

Under 41.5 -110 · DraftKings

SEA @ ARI · 51.0%

SEA 31–7 ARI (38)

Total: Covers consensus 51% under 41.5. SEA under 100% and ARI under 100%. Best -110 at DraftKings.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 Spread SF -13.5 MIA @ SF -105 DraftKings 100.0 MIA 13–35 SF W SF covers the spread 100% vs MIA 0%. Laying points (-13.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
2 Spread ARI +4.5 SEA @ ARI -115 DraftKings 100.0 SEA 31–7 ARI L ARI covers the spread 100% vs SEA 0%. Taking points (+4.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
3 Spread LV +6.5 LV @ LAC -105 DraftKings 100.0 LV 26–14 LAC W LV covers the spread 100% vs LAC 0%. Taking points (+6.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
4 Total points Over 48.5 MIN @ CHI -118 DraftKings 73.0 MIN 9–3 CHI (12) L Total: Covers consensus 73% over 48.5. MIN over 100% and CHI over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.
5 Total points Over 46.5 NO @ BAL -118 DraftKings 67.0 NO 24–17 BAL (41) L Total: Covers consensus 67% over 46.5. NO over 100% and BAL over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.
6 Total points Over 40.5 CLE @ TB -115 DraftKings 59.0 CLE 23–19 TB (42) W Total: Covers consensus 59% over 40.5. CLE over 100% and TB over 100%. Best -115 at DraftKings.
7 Total points Over 46.5 CIN @ HOU -108 DraftKings 59.0 CIN 20–6 HOU (26) L Total: Covers consensus 59% over 46.5. CIN over 100% and HOU over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
8 Total points Under 41.5 PIT @ NE -108 DraftKings 59.0 PIT 3–20 NE (23) W Total: Covers consensus 59% under 41.5. PIT under 100% and NE under 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
9 Total points Over 50.5 WSH @ DAL -108 DraftKings 56.0 WSH 20–37 DAL (57) W Total: Covers consensus 56% over 50.5. WSH over 100% and DAL over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
10 Total points Under 45.5 MIA @ SF -112 DraftKings 54.0 MIA 13–35 SF (48) L Total: Covers consensus 54% under 45.5. MIA under 100% and SF under 100%. Best -112 at DraftKings.
11 Total points Under 41.5 SEA @ ARI -110 DraftKings 51.0 SEA 31–7 ARI (38) W Total: Covers consensus 51% under 41.5. SEA under 100% and ARI under 100%. Best -110 at DraftKings.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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