Tuesday, Sep 1

Priced Sep 1, 2026, 11:28 AM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 17–10

ML, total, and run line when signals stack — best book price.

ATH @ TEX

ML W

TEX ML -210

Best available · 72.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has TEX favored (-210), consensus 72% TEX, and TEX wins 49.3% of games vs ATH 38.4%.

Total W

Over 7.5 +100

Best available · 65.0%

Covers consensus 65% over 7.5. ATH over 50.7% of the time and TEX over 51.5%, so trends confirm.

NYY @ LAA

ML W

NYY ML -196

Best available · 70.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has NYY favored (-196), consensus 70% NYY, and NYY wins 56.5% of games vs LAA 38.4%.

Total L

Under 8.0 -110

Best available · 51.0%

Covers consensus 51% under 8.0. NYY under 56% of the time and LAA under 58.8%, so trends confirm.

Run line L

LAA +1.5 -110

Best available · 50.0%

LAA covers the run line 50% vs NYY 48.6%. Covers board LAA +1.5 (-110). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

BAL @ COL

ML L

BAL ML -145

Best available · 70.0%

Covers has BAL favored (-145), consensus 70% BAL, and BAL wins 50% of games vs COL 37.7%.

Run line W

COL +1.5 -126

Best available · 52.9%

COL covers the run line 52.9% vs BAL 51.4%. Covers board COL +1.5 (-126). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

SF @ PIT

ML W

PIT ML -165

Best available · 67.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has PIT favored (-165), consensus 67% PIT, and PIT wins 48.6% of games vs SF 41.3%.

Total W

Over 7.5 -113

Best available · 57.0%

Covers consensus 57% over 7.5. SF over 50.4% of the time and PIT over 54.9%, so trends confirm.

Run line W

SF +1.5 -164

Best available · 51.4% · lean only (past -160)

SF covers the run line 51.4% vs PIT 48.6%. Covers board SF +1.5 (-164). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

SEA @ BOS

ML L

BOS ML -125

Best available · 67.0%

Covers has BOS favored (-125), consensus 67% BOS, and BOS wins 54.4% of games vs SEA 46.4%.

Run line L

BOS -1.5 +171

Best available · 48.6%

BOS covers the run line 48.6% vs SEA 37.7%. Covers board BOS -1.5 (+171). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

SD @ CIN

ML L

SD ML -130

Best available · 64.0%

Covers has SD favored (-130), consensus 64% SD, and SD wins 52.9% of games vs CIN 47.1%.

Run line L

SD -1.5 +113

Best available · 57.3%

SD covers the run line 57.3% vs CIN 50%. Covers board SD -1.5 (+113). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

ATL @ WSH

ML L

ATL ML -180

Best available · 62.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has ATL favored (-180), consensus 62% ATL, and ATL wins 59.4% of games vs WSH 47.1%.

Run line W

WSH +1.5 -109

Best available · 57.1%

WSH covers the run line 57.1% vs ATL 53.6%. Covers board WSH +1.5 (-109). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

STL @ LAD

ML L

LAD ML -180

Best available · 61.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has LAD favored (-180), consensus 61% LAD, and LAD wins 59.9% of games vs STL 49.3%.

Run line W

STL +1.5 -126

Best available · 54.4%

STL covers the run line 54.4% vs LAD 40.2%. Covers board STL +1.5 (-126). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

CHW @ HOU

ML W

CHW ML -102

Best available · 52.0%

Covers has CHW favored (-102), consensus 52% CHW, and CHW wins 52.6% of games vs HOU 50.7%.

Run line W

CHW -1.5 +150

Best available · 59.1%

CHW covers the run line 59.1% vs HOU 50%. Covers board CHW -1.5 (+150). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

TOR @ CLE

ML W

CLE ML -182

Best available · 57.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has CLE favored (-182), consensus 57% CLE, and CLE wins 50.4% of games vs TOR 49.3%.

Run line W

CLE -1.5 +119

Best available · 51.1%

CLE covers the run line 51.1% vs TOR 48.6%. Covers board CLE -1.5 (+119). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

PHI @ ARI

ML W

PHI ML -120

Best available · 53.0%

Covers has PHI favored (-120), consensus 53% PHI, and PHI wins 56.5% of games vs ARI 52.5%.

Run line L

ARI +1.5 -149

Best available · 54.7%

ARI covers the run line 54.7% vs PHI 41.3%. Covers board ARI +1.5 (-149). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

NYM @ TB

Run line W

TB -1.5 +162

Best available · 54.7%

TB covers the run line 54.7% vs NYM 45.7%. Covers board TB -1.5 (+162). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

DET @ MIN

Run line W

MIN +1.5 -181

Best available · 52.9% · lean only (past -160)

MIN covers the run line 52.9% vs DET 49.6%. Covers board MIN +1.5 (-181). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

MIL @ CHC

Run line W

MIL +1.5 -186

Best available · 52.2% · lean only (past -160)

MIL covers the run line 52.2% vs CHC 48.6%. Covers board MIL +1.5 (-186). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

10–8

Day

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

5 / 3 / 10

ML / totals / RL

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on run lines) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

BAL @ COL BAL ML

SEA @ BOS BOS ML

ATH @ TEX Over 7.5

SD @ CIN SD ML

CHW @ HOU CHW -1.5

SD @ CIN SD -1.5

ATL @ WSH WSH +1.5

SF @ PIT Over 7.5

PHI @ ARI ARI +1.5

NYM @ TB TB -1.5

STL @ LAD STL +1.5

PHI @ ARI PHI ML

BAL @ COL COL +1.5

CHW @ HOU CHW ML

TOR @ CLE CLE -1.5

NYY @ LAA Under 8.0

NYY @ LAA LAA +1.5

SEA @ BOS BOS -1.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · ML L

BAL ML -145

BAL @ COL · 70.0%

BAL 2–4 COL

Covers has BAL favored (-145), consensus 70% BAL, and BAL wins 50% of games vs COL 37.7%.

#2 · ML L

BOS ML -125

SEA @ BOS · 67.0%

SEA 9–6 BOS

Covers has BOS favored (-125), consensus 67% BOS, and BOS wins 54.4% of games vs SEA 46.4%.

#3 · Total W

Over 7.5 +100

ATH @ TEX · 65.0%

ATH 5–8 TEX (13)

Covers consensus 65% over 7.5. ATH over 50.7% of the time and TEX over 51.5%, so trends confirm.

#4 · ML L

SD ML -130

SD @ CIN · 64.0%

SD 3–4 CIN

Covers has SD favored (-130), consensus 64% SD, and SD wins 52.9% of games vs CIN 47.1%.

#5 · Run line W

CHW -1.5 +150

CHW @ HOU · 59.1%

CHW 5–1 HOU

CHW covers the run line 59.1% vs HOU 50%. Covers board CHW -1.5 (+150). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#6 · Run line L

SD -1.5 +113

SD @ CIN · 57.3%

SD 3–4 CIN

SD covers the run line 57.3% vs CIN 50%. Covers board SD -1.5 (+113). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#7 · Run line W

WSH +1.5 -109

ATL @ WSH · 57.1%

ATL 5–9 WSH

WSH covers the run line 57.1% vs ATL 53.6%. Covers board WSH +1.5 (-109). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#8 · Total W

Over 7.5 -113

SF @ PIT · 57.0%

SF 12–13 PIT (25)

Covers consensus 57% over 7.5. SF over 50.4% of the time and PIT over 54.9%, so trends confirm.

#9 · Run line L

ARI +1.5 -149

PHI @ ARI · 54.7%

PHI 7–1 ARI

ARI covers the run line 54.7% vs PHI 41.3%. Covers board ARI +1.5 (-149). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#10 · Run line W

TB -1.5 +162

NYM @ TB · 54.7%

NYM 2–6 TB

TB covers the run line 54.7% vs NYM 45.7%. Covers board TB -1.5 (+162). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#11 · Run line W

STL +1.5 -126

STL @ LAD · 54.4%

STL 13–8 LAD

STL covers the run line 54.4% vs LAD 40.2%. Covers board STL +1.5 (-126). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#12 · ML W

PHI ML -120

PHI @ ARI · 53.0%

PHI 7–1 ARI

Covers has PHI favored (-120), consensus 53% PHI, and PHI wins 56.5% of games vs ARI 52.5%.

#13 · Run line W

COL +1.5 -126

BAL @ COL · 52.9%

BAL 2–4 COL

COL covers the run line 52.9% vs BAL 51.4%. Covers board COL +1.5 (-126). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#14 · ML W

CHW ML -102

CHW @ HOU · 52.0%

CHW 5–1 HOU

Covers has CHW favored (-102), consensus 52% CHW, and CHW wins 52.6% of games vs HOU 50.7%.

#15 · Run line W

CLE -1.5 +119

TOR @ CLE · 51.1%

TOR 1–6 CLE

CLE covers the run line 51.1% vs TOR 48.6%. Covers board CLE -1.5 (+119). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#16 · Total L

Under 8.0 -110

NYY @ LAA · 51.0%

NYY 7–3 LAA (10)

Covers consensus 51% under 8.0. NYY under 56% of the time and LAA under 58.8%, so trends confirm.

#17 · Run line L

LAA +1.5 -110

NYY @ LAA · 50.0%

NYY 7–3 LAA

LAA covers the run line 50% vs NYY 48.6%. Covers board LAA +1.5 (-110). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#18 · Run line L

BOS -1.5 +171

SEA @ BOS · 48.6%

SEA 9–6 BOS

BOS covers the run line 48.6% vs SEA 37.7%. Covers board BOS -1.5 (+171). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	ML	BAL ML BAL @ COL	-145	—	70.0	BAL 2–4 COL	L	Covers has BAL favored (-145), consensus 70% BAL, and BAL wins 50% of games vs COL 37.7%.
2	ML	BOS ML SEA @ BOS	-125	—	67.0	SEA 9–6 BOS	L	Covers has BOS favored (-125), consensus 67% BOS, and BOS wins 54.4% of games vs SEA 46.4%.
3	Total	Over 7.5 ATH @ TEX	+100	—	65.0	ATH 5–8 TEX (13)	W	Covers consensus 65% over 7.5. ATH over 50.7% of the time and TEX over 51.5%, so trends confirm.
4	ML	SD ML SD @ CIN	-130	—	64.0	SD 3–4 CIN	L	Covers has SD favored (-130), consensus 64% SD, and SD wins 52.9% of games vs CIN 47.1%.
5	Run line	CHW -1.5 CHW @ HOU	+150	—	59.1	CHW 5–1 HOU	W	CHW covers the run line 59.1% vs HOU 50%. Covers board CHW -1.5 (+150). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
6	Run line	SD -1.5 SD @ CIN	+113	—	57.3	SD 3–4 CIN	L	SD covers the run line 57.3% vs CIN 50%. Covers board SD -1.5 (+113). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
7	Run line	WSH +1.5 ATL @ WSH	-109	—	57.1	ATL 5–9 WSH	W	WSH covers the run line 57.1% vs ATL 53.6%. Covers board WSH +1.5 (-109). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
8	Total	Over 7.5 SF @ PIT	-113	—	57.0	SF 12–13 PIT (25)	W	Covers consensus 57% over 7.5. SF over 50.4% of the time and PIT over 54.9%, so trends confirm.
9	Run line	ARI +1.5 PHI @ ARI	-149	—	54.7	PHI 7–1 ARI	L	ARI covers the run line 54.7% vs PHI 41.3%. Covers board ARI +1.5 (-149). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
10	Run line	TB -1.5 NYM @ TB	+162	—	54.7	NYM 2–6 TB	W	TB covers the run line 54.7% vs NYM 45.7%. Covers board TB -1.5 (+162). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
11	Run line	STL +1.5 STL @ LAD	-126	—	54.4	STL 13–8 LAD	W	STL covers the run line 54.4% vs LAD 40.2%. Covers board STL +1.5 (-126). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
12	ML	PHI ML PHI @ ARI	-120	—	53.0	PHI 7–1 ARI	W	Covers has PHI favored (-120), consensus 53% PHI, and PHI wins 56.5% of games vs ARI 52.5%.
13	Run line	COL +1.5 BAL @ COL	-126	—	52.9	BAL 2–4 COL	W	COL covers the run line 52.9% vs BAL 51.4%. Covers board COL +1.5 (-126). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
14	ML	CHW ML CHW @ HOU	-102	—	52.0	CHW 5–1 HOU	W	Covers has CHW favored (-102), consensus 52% CHW, and CHW wins 52.6% of games vs HOU 50.7%.
15	Run line	CLE -1.5 TOR @ CLE	+119	—	51.1	TOR 1–6 CLE	W	CLE covers the run line 51.1% vs TOR 48.6%. Covers board CLE -1.5 (+119). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
16	Total	Under 8.0 NYY @ LAA	-110	—	51.0	NYY 7–3 LAA (10)	L	Covers consensus 51% under 8.0. NYY under 56% of the time and LAA under 58.8%, so trends confirm.
17	Run line	LAA +1.5 NYY @ LAA	-110	—	50.0	NYY 7–3 LAA	L	LAA covers the run line 50% vs NYY 48.6%. Covers board LAA +1.5 (-110). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
18	Run line	BOS -1.5 SEA @ BOS	+171	—	48.6	SEA 9–6 BOS	L	BOS covers the run line 48.6% vs SEA 37.7%. Covers board BOS -1.5 (+171). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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