Wednesday, Sep 2

Priced Sep 2, 2026, 11:26 AM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 10–19

ML, total, and run line when signals stack — best book price.

NYM @ TB

ML L

TB ML -163

Best available · 75.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has TB favored (-163), consensus 75% TB, and TB wins 60.1% of games vs NYM 44.6%.

Run line L

TB -1.5 +119

Best available · 55.1%

TB covers the run line 55.1% vs NYM 45.3%. Covers board TB -1.5 (+119). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

MIL @ CHC

ML W

MIL ML -159

Best available · 70.0%

Covers has MIL favored (-159), consensus 70% MIL, and MIL wins 61.9% of games vs CHC 56.1%.

Run line W

MIL -1.5 +105

Best available · 52.5%

MIL covers the run line 52.5% vs CHC 48.2%. Covers board MIL -1.5 (+105). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

ATL @ WSH

ML W

ATL ML -133

Best available · 69.0%

Covers has ATL favored (-133), consensus 69% ATL, and ATL wins 59% of games vs WSH 47.5%.

Run line L

WSH +1.5 -132

Best available · 57.5%

WSH covers the run line 57.5% vs ATL 53.2%. Covers board WSH +1.5 (-132). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

NYY @ LAA

ML W

NYY ML -170

Best available · 68.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has NYY favored (-170), consensus 68% NYY, and NYY wins 56.8% of games vs LAA 38.1%.

Run line L

LAA +1.5 -131

Best available · 49.6%

LAA covers the run line 49.6% vs NYY 48.9%. Covers board LAA +1.5 (-131). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

STL @ LAD

ML L

LAD ML -256

Best available · 68.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has LAD favored (-256), consensus 68% LAD, and LAD wins 59.4% of games vs STL 49.6%.

Run line W

STL +1.5 -110

Best available · 54.7%

STL covers the run line 54.7% vs LAD 39.9%. Covers board STL +1.5 (-110). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

SEA @ BOS

ML L

BOS ML -135

Best available · 67.0%

Covers has BOS favored (-135), consensus 67% BOS, and BOS wins 54% of games vs SEA 46.8%.

Run line L

BOS -1.5 +153

Best available · 48.2%

BOS covers the run line 48.2% vs SEA 38.1%. Covers board BOS -1.5 (+153). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

CHW @ HOU

Total L

Over 8.5 -117

Best available · 67.0%

Covers consensus 67% over 8.5. CHW over 57.4% of the time and HOU over 54.2%, so trends confirm.

Run line L

CHW +1.5 -181

Best available · 59.4% · lean only (past -160)

CHW covers the run line 59.4% vs HOU 49.6%. Covers board CHW +1.5 (-181). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

SF @ PIT

ML L

PIT ML -156

Best available · 64.0%

Covers has PIT favored (-156), consensus 64% PIT, and PIT wins 48.9% of games vs SF 41%.

Total W

Over 8.5 -122

Best available · 55.0%

Covers consensus 55% over 8.5. SF over 50.8% of the time and PIT over 55.2%, so trends confirm.

Run line W

SF +1.5 -170

Best available · 51.8% · lean only (past -160)

SF covers the run line 51.8% vs PIT 48.2%. Covers board SF +1.5 (-170). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

SD @ CIN

ML L

SD ML -150

Best available · 64.0%

Covers has SD favored (-150), consensus 64% SD, and SD wins 52.5% of games vs CIN 47.5%.

Run line L

SD -1.5 +102

Best available · 56.8%

SD covers the run line 56.8% vs CIN 50.4%. Covers board SD -1.5 (+102). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

MIA @ KC

Total L

Under 9.0 -114

Best available · 62.0%

Covers consensus 62% under 9.0. MIA under 50.4% of the time and KC under 53.3%, so trends confirm.

Run line W

MIA -1.5 +151

Best available · 49.6%

MIA covers the run line 49.6% vs KC 48.9%. Covers board MIA -1.5 (+151). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

ATH @ TEX

ML L

TEX ML -162

Best available · 61.0% · lean only (past -160)

Covers has TEX favored (-162), consensus 61% TEX, and TEX wins 49.6% of games vs ATH 38.1%.

Total W

Over 7.5 -122

Best available · 60.0%

Covers consensus 60% over 7.5. ATH over 51.1% of the time and TEX over 51.9%, so trends confirm.

Run line L

TEX -1.5 +130

Best available · 46.0%

TEX covers the run line 46% vs ATH 45.3%. Covers board TEX -1.5 (+130). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

DET @ MIN

ML L

MIN ML -120

Best available · 57.0%

Covers has MIN favored (-120), consensus 57% MIN, and MIN wins 48.2% of games vs DET 45.7%.

Run line L

MIN +1.5 -187

Best available · 53.2% · lean only (past -160)

MIN covers the run line 53.2% vs DET 49.3%. Covers board MIN +1.5 (-187). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

PHI @ ARI

ML L

PHI ML -132

Best available · 55.0%

Covers has PHI favored (-132), consensus 55% PHI, and PHI wins 56.8% of games vs ARI 52.1%.

Run line W

ARI +1.5 -162

Best available · 54.3% · lean only (past -160)

ARI covers the run line 54.3% vs PHI 41.7%. Covers board ARI +1.5 (-162). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

TOR @ CLE

Run line L

CLE +1.5 -167

Best available · 51.4% · lean only (past -160)

CLE covers the run line 51.4% vs TOR 48.2%. Covers board CLE +1.5 (-167). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

7–13

Day

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

7 / 4 / 9

ML / totals / RL

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on run lines) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

MIL @ CHC MIL ML

ATL @ WSH ATL ML

SEA @ BOS BOS ML

CHW @ HOU Over 8.5

SF @ PIT PIT ML

SD @ CIN SD ML

MIA @ KC Under 9.0

ATH @ TEX Over 7.5

ATL @ WSH WSH +1.5

DET @ MIN MIN ML

SD @ CIN SD -1.5

NYM @ TB TB -1.5

SF @ PIT Over 8.5

PHI @ ARI PHI ML

STL @ LAD STL +1.5

MIL @ CHC MIL -1.5

NYY @ LAA LAA +1.5

MIA @ KC MIA -1.5

SEA @ BOS BOS -1.5

ATH @ TEX TEX -1.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · ML W

MIL ML -159

MIL @ CHC · 70.0%

MIL 9–5 CHC

Covers has MIL favored (-159), consensus 70% MIL, and MIL wins 61.9% of games vs CHC 56.1%.

#2 · ML W

ATL ML -133

ATL @ WSH · 69.0%

ATL 9–0 WSH

Covers has ATL favored (-133), consensus 69% ATL, and ATL wins 59% of games vs WSH 47.5%.

#3 · ML L

BOS ML -135

SEA @ BOS · 67.0%

SEA 8–3 BOS

Covers has BOS favored (-135), consensus 67% BOS, and BOS wins 54% of games vs SEA 46.8%.

#4 · Total L

Over 8.5 -117

CHW @ HOU · 67.0%

CHW 0–2 HOU (2)

Covers consensus 67% over 8.5. CHW over 57.4% of the time and HOU over 54.2%, so trends confirm.

#5 · ML L

PIT ML -156

SF @ PIT · 64.0%

SF 5–4 PIT

Covers has PIT favored (-156), consensus 64% PIT, and PIT wins 48.9% of games vs SF 41%.

#6 · ML L

SD ML -150

SD @ CIN · 64.0%

SD 3–7 CIN

Covers has SD favored (-150), consensus 64% SD, and SD wins 52.5% of games vs CIN 47.5%.

#7 · Total L

Under 9.0 -114

MIA @ KC · 62.0%

MIA 9–6 KC (15)

Covers consensus 62% under 9.0. MIA under 50.4% of the time and KC under 53.3%, so trends confirm.

#8 · Total W

Over 7.5 -122

ATH @ TEX · 60.0%

ATH 9–2 TEX (11)

Covers consensus 60% over 7.5. ATH over 51.1% of the time and TEX over 51.9%, so trends confirm.

#9 · Run line L

WSH +1.5 -132

ATL @ WSH · 57.5%

ATL 9–0 WSH

WSH covers the run line 57.5% vs ATL 53.2%. Covers board WSH +1.5 (-132). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#10 · ML L

MIN ML -120

DET @ MIN · 57.0%

DET 11–6 MIN

Covers has MIN favored (-120), consensus 57% MIN, and MIN wins 48.2% of games vs DET 45.7%.

#11 · Run line L

SD -1.5 +102

SD @ CIN · 56.8%

SD 3–7 CIN

SD covers the run line 56.8% vs CIN 50.4%. Covers board SD -1.5 (+102). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#12 · Run line L

TB -1.5 +119

NYM @ TB · 55.1%

NYM 10–4 TB

TB covers the run line 55.1% vs NYM 45.3%. Covers board TB -1.5 (+119). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#13 · Total W

Over 8.5 -122

SF @ PIT · 55.0%

SF 5–4 PIT (9)

Covers consensus 55% over 8.5. SF over 50.8% of the time and PIT over 55.2%, so trends confirm.

#14 · ML L

PHI ML -132

PHI @ ARI · 55.0%

PHI 0–1 ARI

Covers has PHI favored (-132), consensus 55% PHI, and PHI wins 56.8% of games vs ARI 52.1%.

#15 · Run line W

STL +1.5 -110

STL @ LAD · 54.7%

STL 8–6 LAD

STL covers the run line 54.7% vs LAD 39.9%. Covers board STL +1.5 (-110). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#16 · Run line W

MIL -1.5 +105

MIL @ CHC · 52.5%

MIL 9–5 CHC

MIL covers the run line 52.5% vs CHC 48.2%. Covers board MIL -1.5 (+105). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#17 · Run line L

LAA +1.5 -131

NYY @ LAA · 49.6%

NYY 6–3 LAA

LAA covers the run line 49.6% vs NYY 48.9%. Covers board LAA +1.5 (-131). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#18 · Run line W

MIA -1.5 +151

MIA @ KC · 49.6%

MIA 9–6 KC

MIA covers the run line 49.6% vs KC 48.9%. Covers board MIA -1.5 (+151). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#19 · Run line L

BOS -1.5 +153

SEA @ BOS · 48.2%

SEA 8–3 BOS

BOS covers the run line 48.2% vs SEA 38.1%. Covers board BOS -1.5 (+153). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#20 · Run line L

TEX -1.5 +130

ATH @ TEX · 46.0%

ATH 9–2 TEX

TEX covers the run line 46% vs ATH 45.3%. Covers board TEX -1.5 (+130). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	ML	MIL ML MIL @ CHC	-159	—	70.0	MIL 9–5 CHC	W	Covers has MIL favored (-159), consensus 70% MIL, and MIL wins 61.9% of games vs CHC 56.1%.
2	ML	ATL ML ATL @ WSH	-133	—	69.0	ATL 9–0 WSH	W	Covers has ATL favored (-133), consensus 69% ATL, and ATL wins 59% of games vs WSH 47.5%.
3	ML	BOS ML SEA @ BOS	-135	—	67.0	SEA 8–3 BOS	L	Covers has BOS favored (-135), consensus 67% BOS, and BOS wins 54% of games vs SEA 46.8%.
4	Total	Over 8.5 CHW @ HOU	-117	—	67.0	CHW 0–2 HOU (2)	L	Covers consensus 67% over 8.5. CHW over 57.4% of the time and HOU over 54.2%, so trends confirm.
5	ML	PIT ML SF @ PIT	-156	—	64.0	SF 5–4 PIT	L	Covers has PIT favored (-156), consensus 64% PIT, and PIT wins 48.9% of games vs SF 41%.
6	ML	SD ML SD @ CIN	-150	—	64.0	SD 3–7 CIN	L	Covers has SD favored (-150), consensus 64% SD, and SD wins 52.5% of games vs CIN 47.5%.
7	Total	Under 9.0 MIA @ KC	-114	—	62.0	MIA 9–6 KC (15)	L	Covers consensus 62% under 9.0. MIA under 50.4% of the time and KC under 53.3%, so trends confirm.
8	Total	Over 7.5 ATH @ TEX	-122	—	60.0	ATH 9–2 TEX (11)	W	Covers consensus 60% over 7.5. ATH over 51.1% of the time and TEX over 51.9%, so trends confirm.
9	Run line	WSH +1.5 ATL @ WSH	-132	—	57.5	ATL 9–0 WSH	L	WSH covers the run line 57.5% vs ATL 53.2%. Covers board WSH +1.5 (-132). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
10	ML	MIN ML DET @ MIN	-120	—	57.0	DET 11–6 MIN	L	Covers has MIN favored (-120), consensus 57% MIN, and MIN wins 48.2% of games vs DET 45.7%.
11	Run line	SD -1.5 SD @ CIN	+102	—	56.8	SD 3–7 CIN	L	SD covers the run line 56.8% vs CIN 50.4%. Covers board SD -1.5 (+102). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
12	Run line	TB -1.5 NYM @ TB	+119	—	55.1	NYM 10–4 TB	L	TB covers the run line 55.1% vs NYM 45.3%. Covers board TB -1.5 (+119). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
13	Total	Over 8.5 SF @ PIT	-122	—	55.0	SF 5–4 PIT (9)	W	Covers consensus 55% over 8.5. SF over 50.8% of the time and PIT over 55.2%, so trends confirm.
14	ML	PHI ML PHI @ ARI	-132	—	55.0	PHI 0–1 ARI	L	Covers has PHI favored (-132), consensus 55% PHI, and PHI wins 56.8% of games vs ARI 52.1%.
15	Run line	STL +1.5 STL @ LAD	-110	—	54.7	STL 8–6 LAD	W	STL covers the run line 54.7% vs LAD 39.9%. Covers board STL +1.5 (-110). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
16	Run line	MIL -1.5 MIL @ CHC	+105	—	52.5	MIL 9–5 CHC	W	MIL covers the run line 52.5% vs CHC 48.2%. Covers board MIL -1.5 (+105). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
17	Run line	LAA +1.5 NYY @ LAA	-131	—	49.6	NYY 6–3 LAA	L	LAA covers the run line 49.6% vs NYY 48.9%. Covers board LAA +1.5 (-131). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
18	Run line	MIA -1.5 MIA @ KC	+151	—	49.6	MIA 9–6 KC	W	MIA covers the run line 49.6% vs KC 48.9%. Covers board MIA -1.5 (+151). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
19	Run line	BOS -1.5 SEA @ BOS	+153	—	48.2	SEA 8–3 BOS	L	BOS covers the run line 48.2% vs SEA 38.1%. Covers board BOS -1.5 (+153). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.
20	Run line	TEX -1.5 ATH @ TEX	+130	—	46.0	ATH 9–2 TEX	L	TEX covers the run line 46% vs ATH 45.3%. Covers board TEX -1.5 (+130). Covers has no spread consensus, so run lines sit on the betting list.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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