Tuesday, Sep 15

Priced Sep 15, 2026, 12:15 PM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Next update: 10:00 PM ET — Hourly score grade.

Overnight recap: 0–1 · waiting on a live game

ML, total, and run line when signals stack — best book price.

ATH @ TB

ML W

TB ML -238

DraftKings · 74.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 74% TB; best -238 at DraftKings. TB wins 60.4% vs ATH 40.7%.

Total L

Over 8.0 -108

DraftKings · 66.0%

Total: Covers consensus 66% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 9.15 (4.33–4.82). Best -108 at DraftKings.

NYY @ MIN

ML Winning

NYY ML -184

DraftKings · 73.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 73% NYY; best -184 at DraftKings. NYY wins 58% vs MIN 46.7%.

Total Losing

Over 8.0 -105

DraftKings · 56.0%

Total: Covers consensus 56% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 9.58 (5.26–4.32). Best -105 at DraftKings.

Run line Losing

MIN +1.5 -114

ESPN · 51.3%

MIN covers the run line 51.3% vs NYY 50.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best -114 at ESPN.

SF @ STL

ML Losing

STL ML -162

DraftKings · 71.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 71% STL; best -162 at DraftKings. STL wins 49.7% vs SF 41.1%.

Total Winning

Over 8.0 -117

DraftKings · 55.0%

Total: Covers consensus 55% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 8.64 (3.7–4.94). Best -117 at DraftKings.

SD @ COL

ML Winning

SD ML -194

DraftKings · 71.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 71% SD; best -194 at DraftKings. SD wins 54.7% vs COL 36.7%.

LAD @ CIN

ML Winning

LAD ML -241

DraftKings · 71.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 71% LAD; best -241 at DraftKings. LAD wins 60.7% vs CIN 46.7%.

Total Losing

Over 8.5 -117

DraftKings · 54.0%

Total: Covers consensus 54% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.58 (5.59–3.99). Best -117 at DraftKings.

Run line Losing

CIN +1.5 +119

ESPN · 50.0%

CIN covers the run line 50% vs LAD 40.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best +119 at ESPN.

MIA @ ARI

ML pending

ARI ML -151

DraftKings · 71.0%

ML: Covers consensus 71% ARI; best -151 at DraftKings. ARI wins 53% vs MIA 49%.

Total pending

Over 8.5 -114

DraftKings · 60.0%

Total: Covers consensus 60% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.75 (4.71–5.04). Best -114 at DraftKings.

MIL @ PIT

ML Winning

MIL ML -219

DraftKings · 69.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 69% MIL; best -219 at DraftKings. MIL wins 62% vs PIT 50%.

Total Losing

Over 7.5 -107

DraftKings · 56.0%

Total: Covers consensus 56% over 7.5; Covers computer projects 9.22 (4.68–4.54). Best -107 at DraftKings.

PHI @ WSH

ML Losing

PHI ML -217

DraftKings · 68.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 68% PHI; best -217 at DraftKings. PHI wins 55.3% vs WSH 46.4%.

Total Winning

Over 8.0 -115

DraftKings · 66.0%

Total: Covers consensus 66% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 8.95 (4.78–4.17). Best -115 at DraftKings.

Run line Winning

WSH +1.5 +104

ESPN · 55.6%

WSH covers the run line 55.6% vs PHI 42%. Taking points (+1.5); best +104 at ESPN.

DET @ TOR

ML Losing

TOR ML -144

DraftKings · 62.0%

ML: Covers consensus 62% TOR; best -144 at DraftKings. TOR wins 49.7% vs DET 47.3%.

Total Losing

Over 8.5 -105

DraftKings · 67.0%

Total: Covers consensus 67% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.86 (5.05–4.81). Best -105 at DraftKings.

Run line Winning

DET +1.5 -181

ESPN · 52.7% · lean only (past -160)

DET covers the run line 52.7% vs TOR 48.3%. Taking points (+1.5); best -181 at ESPN.

SEA @ LAA

ML pending

SEA ML -174

DraftKings · 64.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 64% SEA; best -174 at DraftKings. SEA wins 46.4% vs LAA 38%.

Run line pending

LAA +1.5 -120

ESPN · 52.0%

LAA covers the run line 52% vs SEA 37.8%. Taking points (+1.5); best -120 at ESPN.

ATL @ CHC

Total Losing

Over 8.5 -110

DraftKings · 64.0%

Total: Covers consensus 64% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9 (4.23–4.77). Best -110 at DraftKings.

Run line Winning

ATL +1.5 -180

ESPN · 52.3% · lean only (past -160)

ATL covers the run line 52.3% vs CHC 47.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best -180 at ESPN.

BOS @ TEX

ML Losing

BOS ML -113

DraftKings · 61.0%

ML: Covers consensus 61% BOS; best -113 at DraftKings. BOS wins 54.7% vs TEX 49.3%.

KC @ HOU

ML Winning

HOU ML -168

DraftKings · 60.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: Covers consensus 60% HOU; best -168 at DraftKings. HOU wins 50% vs KC 44%.

BAL @ NYM

Total Losing

Over 8.0 -110

DraftKings · 58.0%

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 10.67 (5.38–5.29). Best -110 at DraftKings.

Run line Winning

BAL +1.5 -188

ESPN · 51.0% · lean only (past -160)

BAL covers the run line 51% vs NYM 46.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best -188 at ESPN.

CHW @ CLE

Run line Winning

CHW +1.5 -175

ESPN · 56.7% · lean only (past -160)

CHW covers the run line 56.7% vs CLE 49%. Taking points (+1.5); best -175 at ESPN.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

0–1

Day

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

3 / 10 / 4

ML / totals / RL

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on run lines) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

MIA @ ARI ARI ML

DET @ TOR Over 8.5

ATH @ TB Over 8.0

PHI @ WSH Over 8.0

ATL @ CHC Over 8.5

DET @ TOR TOR ML

BOS @ TEX BOS ML

MIA @ ARI Over 8.5

BAL @ NYM Over 8.0

NYY @ MIN Over 8.0

MIL @ PIT Over 7.5

PHI @ WSH WSH +1.5

SF @ STL Over 8.0

LAD @ CIN Over 8.5

SEA @ LAA LAA +1.5

NYY @ MIN MIN +1.5

LAD @ CIN CIN +1.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · ML pending

ARI ML -151 · DraftKings

MIA @ ARI · 71.0%

9/15 - 9:40 PM EDT

ML: Covers consensus 71% ARI; best -151 at DraftKings. ARI wins 53% vs MIA 49%.

#2 · Total Losing

Over 8.5 -105 · DraftKings

DET @ TOR · 67.0%

DET 6–0 TOR (6) · Top 7th · 1 out

Total: Covers consensus 67% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.86 (5.05–4.81). Best -105 at DraftKings.

#3 · Total L

Over 8.0 -108 · DraftKings

ATH @ TB · 66.0%

ATH 1–2 TB (3)

Total: Covers consensus 66% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 9.15 (4.33–4.82). Best -108 at DraftKings.

#4 · Total Winning

Over 8.0 -115 · DraftKings

PHI @ WSH · 66.0%

PHI 3–6 WSH (9) · End 8th · 0 outs

Total: Covers consensus 66% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 8.95 (4.78–4.17). Best -115 at DraftKings.

#5 · Total Losing

Over 8.5 -110 · DraftKings

ATL @ CHC · 64.0%

ATL 2–3 CHC (5) · Top 6th · 1 out

Total: Covers consensus 64% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9 (4.23–4.77). Best -110 at DraftKings.

#6 · ML Losing

TOR ML -144 · DraftKings

DET @ TOR · 62.0%

DET 6–0 TOR · Top 7th · 1 out

ML: Covers consensus 62% TOR; best -144 at DraftKings. TOR wins 49.7% vs DET 47.3%.

#7 · ML Losing

BOS ML -113 · DraftKings

BOS @ TEX · 61.0%

BOS 2–4 TEX · Top 3rd · 2 outs

ML: Covers consensus 61% BOS; best -113 at DraftKings. BOS wins 54.7% vs TEX 49.3%.

#8 · Total pending

Over 8.5 -114 · DraftKings

MIA @ ARI · 60.0%

9/15 - 9:40 PM EDT

Total: Covers consensus 60% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.75 (4.71–5.04). Best -114 at DraftKings.

#9 · Total Losing

Over 8.0 -110 · DraftKings

BAL @ NYM · 58.0%

BAL 2–3 NYM (5) · Top 7th · 0 outs

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 10.67 (5.38–5.29). Best -110 at DraftKings.

#10 · Total Losing

Over 8.0 -105 · DraftKings

NYY @ MIN · 56.0%

NYY 3–1 MIN (4) · Bottom 5th · 1 out

Total: Covers consensus 56% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 9.58 (5.26–4.32). Best -105 at DraftKings.

#11 · Total Losing

Over 7.5 -107 · DraftKings

MIL @ PIT · 56.0%

MIL 5–0 PIT (5) · Middle 8th · 0 outs

Total: Covers consensus 56% over 7.5; Covers computer projects 9.22 (4.68–4.54). Best -107 at DraftKings.

#12 · Run line Winning

WSH +1.5 +104 · ESPN

PHI @ WSH · 55.6%

PHI 3–6 WSH · End 8th · 0 outs

WSH covers the run line 55.6% vs PHI 42%. Taking points (+1.5); best +104 at ESPN.

#13 · Total Winning

Over 8.0 -117 · DraftKings

SF @ STL · 55.0%

SF 8–2 STL (10) · Bottom 4th · 1 out

Total: Covers consensus 55% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 8.64 (3.7–4.94). Best -117 at DraftKings.

#14 · Total Losing

Over 8.5 -117 · DraftKings

LAD @ CIN · 54.0%

LAD 4–0 CIN (4) · Bottom 9th · 0 outs

Total: Covers consensus 54% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.58 (5.59–3.99). Best -117 at DraftKings.

#15 · Run line pending

LAA +1.5 -120 · ESPN

SEA @ LAA · 52.0%

9/15 - 9:38 PM EDT

LAA covers the run line 52% vs SEA 37.8%. Taking points (+1.5); best -120 at ESPN.

#16 · Run line Losing

MIN +1.5 -114 · ESPN

NYY @ MIN · 51.3%

NYY 3–1 MIN · Bottom 5th · 1 out

MIN covers the run line 51.3% vs NYY 50.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best -114 at ESPN.

#17 · Run line Losing

CIN +1.5 +119 · ESPN

LAD @ CIN · 50.0%

LAD 4–0 CIN · Bottom 9th · 0 outs

CIN covers the run line 50% vs LAD 40.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best +119 at ESPN.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	ML	ARI ML MIA @ ARI	-151	DraftKings	71.0	9/15 - 9:40 PM EDT	pending	ML: Covers consensus 71% ARI; best -151 at DraftKings. ARI wins 53% vs MIA 49%.
2	Total	Over 8.5 DET @ TOR	-105	DraftKings	67.0	DET 6–0 TOR (6) · Top 7th · 1 out	Losing	Total: Covers consensus 67% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.86 (5.05–4.81). Best -105 at DraftKings.
3	Total	Over 8.0 ATH @ TB	-108	DraftKings	66.0	ATH 1–2 TB (3)	L	Total: Covers consensus 66% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 9.15 (4.33–4.82). Best -108 at DraftKings.
4	Total	Over 8.0 PHI @ WSH	-115	DraftKings	66.0	PHI 3–6 WSH (9) · End 8th · 0 outs	Winning	Total: Covers consensus 66% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 8.95 (4.78–4.17). Best -115 at DraftKings.
5	Total	Over 8.5 ATL @ CHC	-110	DraftKings	64.0	ATL 2–3 CHC (5) · Top 6th · 1 out	Losing	Total: Covers consensus 64% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9 (4.23–4.77). Best -110 at DraftKings.
6	ML	TOR ML DET @ TOR	-144	DraftKings	62.0	DET 6–0 TOR · Top 7th · 1 out	Losing	ML: Covers consensus 62% TOR; best -144 at DraftKings. TOR wins 49.7% vs DET 47.3%.
7	ML	BOS ML BOS @ TEX	-113	DraftKings	61.0	BOS 2–4 TEX · Top 3rd · 2 outs	Losing	ML: Covers consensus 61% BOS; best -113 at DraftKings. BOS wins 54.7% vs TEX 49.3%.
8	Total	Over 8.5 MIA @ ARI	-114	DraftKings	60.0	9/15 - 9:40 PM EDT	pending	Total: Covers consensus 60% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.75 (4.71–5.04). Best -114 at DraftKings.
9	Total	Over 8.0 BAL @ NYM	-110	DraftKings	58.0	BAL 2–3 NYM (5) · Top 7th · 0 outs	Losing	Total: Covers consensus 58% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 10.67 (5.38–5.29). Best -110 at DraftKings.
10	Total	Over 8.0 NYY @ MIN	-105	DraftKings	56.0	NYY 3–1 MIN (4) · Bottom 5th · 1 out	Losing	Total: Covers consensus 56% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 9.58 (5.26–4.32). Best -105 at DraftKings.
11	Total	Over 7.5 MIL @ PIT	-107	DraftKings	56.0	MIL 5–0 PIT (5) · Middle 8th · 0 outs	Losing	Total: Covers consensus 56% over 7.5; Covers computer projects 9.22 (4.68–4.54). Best -107 at DraftKings.
12	Run line	WSH +1.5 PHI @ WSH	+104	ESPN	55.6	PHI 3–6 WSH · End 8th · 0 outs	Winning	WSH covers the run line 55.6% vs PHI 42%. Taking points (+1.5); best +104 at ESPN.
13	Total	Over 8.0 SF @ STL	-117	DraftKings	55.0	SF 8–2 STL (10) · Bottom 4th · 1 out	Winning	Total: Covers consensus 55% over 8.0; Covers computer projects 8.64 (3.7–4.94). Best -117 at DraftKings.
14	Total	Over 8.5 LAD @ CIN	-117	DraftKings	54.0	LAD 4–0 CIN (4) · Bottom 9th · 0 outs	Losing	Total: Covers consensus 54% over 8.5; Covers computer projects 9.58 (5.59–3.99). Best -117 at DraftKings.
15	Run line	LAA +1.5 SEA @ LAA	-120	ESPN	52.0	9/15 - 9:38 PM EDT	pending	LAA covers the run line 52% vs SEA 37.8%. Taking points (+1.5); best -120 at ESPN.
16	Run line	MIN +1.5 NYY @ MIN	-114	ESPN	51.3	NYY 3–1 MIN · Bottom 5th · 1 out	Losing	MIN covers the run line 51.3% vs NYY 50.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best -114 at ESPN.
17	Run line	CIN +1.5 LAD @ CIN	+119	ESPN	50.0	LAD 4–0 CIN · Bottom 9th · 0 outs	Losing	CIN covers the run line 50% vs LAD 40.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best +119 at ESPN.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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