← NCAAF picks · Week 4

Saturday, Sep 19

Priced Sep 15, 2026, 6:06 PM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 5–11

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

5–11

Day

5–5

Last 10

10–10

Last 20

1 / 0 / 15

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
UGA @ ARK UGA -24.5
KENT @ OSU OSU -52.5
STAN @ DUKE DUKE -9.5
UNT @ TXST UNT +3
OHIO @ USA USA -5.5
WMU @ RICE WMU -9.5
JMU @ SDSU JMU +2.5
TULN @ KSU KSU -20.5
FSU @ ALA ALA -19.5
FRES @ SJSU SJSU +6.5
UNC @ CLEM UNC +3.5
BGSU @ ISU ISU -23.5
LSU @ MISS LSU -3
ECU @ ODU ODU ML
BALL @ LIB BALL +14.5
EMU @ WIS EMU +24.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · Spread W

UGA -24.5 -120 · DraftKings

UGA @ ARK · 100.0%

UGA 45–17 ARK

UGA covers the spread 100% vs ARK 0%. Laying points (-24.5); best -120 at DraftKings.

#2 · Spread W

OSU -52.5 -112 · DraftKings

KENT @ OSU · 100.0%

KENT 3–59 OSU

OSU covers the spread 100% vs KENT 50%. Laying points (-52.5); best -112 at DraftKings.

#3 · Spread W

DUKE -9.5 -112 · DraftKings

STAN @ DUKE · 100.0%

STAN 7–35 DUKE

DUKE covers the spread 100% vs STAN 50%. Laying points (-9.5); best -112 at DraftKings.

#4 · Spread L

UNT +3 -118 · DraftKings

UNT @ TXST · 100.0%

UNT 35–49 TXST

UNT covers the spread 100% vs TXST 0%. Taking points (+3); best -118 at DraftKings.

#5 · Spread L

USA -5.5 -110 · DraftKings

OHIO @ USA · 100.0%

OHIO 36–41 USA

USA covers the spread 100% vs OHIO 50%. Laying points (-5.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#6 · Spread L

WMU -9.5 -115 · DraftKings

WMU @ RICE · 100.0%

WMU 28–21 RICE

WMU covers the spread 100% vs RICE 50%. Laying points (-9.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#7 · Spread W

JMU +2.5 -108 · DraftKings

JMU @ SDSU · 100.0%

JMU 26–13 SDSU

JMU covers the spread 100% vs SDSU 0%. Taking points (+2.5); best -108 at DraftKings.

#8 · Spread L

KSU -20.5 -115 · DraftKings

TULN @ KSU · 100.0%

TULN 20–31 KSU

KSU covers the spread 100% vs TULN 0%. Laying points (-20.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#9 · Spread L

ALA -19.5 -110 · DraftKings

FSU @ ALA · 100.0%

FSU 36–50 ALA

ALA covers the spread 100% vs FSU 0%. Laying points (-19.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#10 · Spread L

SJSU +6.5 -102 · DraftKings

FRES @ SJSU · 66.7%

FRES 26–10 SJSU

SJSU covers the spread 66.7% vs FRES 50%. Taking points (+6.5); best -102 at DraftKings.

#11 · Spread L

UNC +3.5 -115 · DraftKings

UNC @ CLEM · 50.0%

UNC 20–28 CLEM

UNC covers the spread 50% vs CLEM 0%. Taking points (+3.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#12 · Spread W

ISU -23.5 -110 · DraftKings

BGSU @ ISU · 50.0%

BGSU 7–55 ISU

ISU covers the spread 50% vs BGSU 0%. Laying points (-23.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#13 · Spread L

LSU -3 -112 · DraftKings

LSU @ MISS · 50.0%

LSU 24–32 MISS

LSU covers the spread 50% vs MISS 0%. Laying points (-3); best -112 at DraftKings.

#14 · ML L

ODU ML -148 · DraftKings

ECU @ ODU · 50.0%

ECU 20–17 ODU

ML: ODU best -148 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 50% vs ECU 0%.

#15 · Spread L

BALL +14.5 -115 · DraftKings

BALL @ LIB · 50.0%

BALL 15–51 LIB

BALL covers the spread 50% vs LIB 0%. Taking points (+14.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#16 · Spread L

EMU +24.5 -118 · DraftKings

EMU @ WIS · 33.3%

EMU 10–54 WIS

EMU covers the spread 33.3% vs WIS 0%. Taking points (+24.5); best -118 at DraftKings.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 Spread UGA -24.5 UGA @ ARK -120 DraftKings 100.0 UGA 45–17 ARK W UGA covers the spread 100% vs ARK 0%. Laying points (-24.5); best -120 at DraftKings.
2 Spread OSU -52.5 KENT @ OSU -112 DraftKings 100.0 KENT 3–59 OSU W OSU covers the spread 100% vs KENT 50%. Laying points (-52.5); best -112 at DraftKings.
3 Spread DUKE -9.5 STAN @ DUKE -112 DraftKings 100.0 STAN 7–35 DUKE W DUKE covers the spread 100% vs STAN 50%. Laying points (-9.5); best -112 at DraftKings.
4 Spread UNT +3 UNT @ TXST -118 DraftKings 100.0 UNT 35–49 TXST L UNT covers the spread 100% vs TXST 0%. Taking points (+3); best -118 at DraftKings.
5 Spread USA -5.5 OHIO @ USA -110 DraftKings 100.0 OHIO 36–41 USA L USA covers the spread 100% vs OHIO 50%. Laying points (-5.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
6 Spread WMU -9.5 WMU @ RICE -115 DraftKings 100.0 WMU 28–21 RICE L WMU covers the spread 100% vs RICE 50%. Laying points (-9.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
7 Spread JMU +2.5 JMU @ SDSU -108 DraftKings 100.0 JMU 26–13 SDSU W JMU covers the spread 100% vs SDSU 0%. Taking points (+2.5); best -108 at DraftKings.
8 Spread KSU -20.5 TULN @ KSU -115 DraftKings 100.0 TULN 20–31 KSU L KSU covers the spread 100% vs TULN 0%. Laying points (-20.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
9 Spread ALA -19.5 FSU @ ALA -110 DraftKings 100.0 FSU 36–50 ALA L ALA covers the spread 100% vs FSU 0%. Laying points (-19.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
10 Spread SJSU +6.5 FRES @ SJSU -102 DraftKings 66.7 FRES 26–10 SJSU L SJSU covers the spread 66.7% vs FRES 50%. Taking points (+6.5); best -102 at DraftKings.
11 Spread UNC +3.5 UNC @ CLEM -115 DraftKings 50.0 UNC 20–28 CLEM L UNC covers the spread 50% vs CLEM 0%. Taking points (+3.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
12 Spread ISU -23.5 BGSU @ ISU -110 DraftKings 50.0 BGSU 7–55 ISU W ISU covers the spread 50% vs BGSU 0%. Laying points (-23.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
13 Spread LSU -3 LSU @ MISS -112 DraftKings 50.0 LSU 24–32 MISS L LSU covers the spread 50% vs MISS 0%. Laying points (-3); best -112 at DraftKings.
14 ML ODU ML ECU @ ODU -148 DraftKings 50.0 ECU 20–17 ODU L ML: ODU best -148 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 50% vs ECU 0%.
15 Spread BALL +14.5 BALL @ LIB -115 DraftKings 50.0 BALL 15–51 LIB L BALL covers the spread 50% vs LIB 0%. Taking points (+14.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
16 Spread EMU +24.5 EMU @ WIS -118 DraftKings 33.3 EMU 10–54 WIS L EMU covers the spread 33.3% vs WIS 0%. Taking points (+24.5); best -118 at DraftKings.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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