← NCAAF picks · Week 8

Saturday, Oct 17

Priced Oct 17, 2026, 10:00 AM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 19–22

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

19–22

Day

5–5

Last 10

10–10

Last 20

3 / 13 / 25

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
WIS @ UCLA UCLA ML
WIS @ UCLA UCLA -2.5
UTA @ COLO UTA -14.5
WSU @ ORST ORST -18.5
ND @ BYU BYU +10.5
UNM @ HAW UNM -14.5
FRES @ SDSU FRES -7.5
NEB @ ORE NEB +6.5
AUB @ UGA UGA -19.5
NAVY @ UTSA UTSA -6.5
TCU @ BAY BAY -5.5
FSU @ MIA MIA -20.5
MSST @ LSU MSST +17.5
LT @ ULM LT -15.5
UNC @ DUKE DUKE ML
OKST @ HOU OKST +4.5
UNLV @ AFA AFA ML
MSST @ LSU Over 55.5
LOU @ SYR Over 55.5
KU @ KSU Over 55.5
OKST @ HOU Over 62.5
OSU @ IU OSU -2.5
PITT @ BC PITT -5.5
ALA @ TENN ALA -7.5
LOU @ SYR LOU -14.5
LT @ ULM Over 56.5
ASU @ TTU Over 50.5
UNLV @ AFA Under 47.5
WIS @ UCLA Over 43.5
CIN @ WVU Over 63.5
NIU @ WYO Under 41.5
GT @ VT Over 56.5
BALL @ BGSU Over 46.5
RUTG @ MD Over 56.5
ARK @ VAN VAN -5.5
RUTG @ MD MD -5.5
SJSU @ UTEP SJSU -6.5
FLA @ TEX FLA +12.5
TOL @ EMU EMU +6.5
WMU @ CMU WMU -7.5
NIU @ WYO WYO -7.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · ML W

UCLA ML -135 · DraftKings

WIS @ UCLA · 100.0%

WIS 7–17 UCLA

ML: UCLA best -135 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs WIS 80%.

#2 · Spread W

UCLA -2.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

WIS @ UCLA · 100.0%

WIS 7–17 UCLA

UCLA covers the spread 100% vs WIS 60%. Laying points (-2.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#3 · Spread L

UTA -14.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

UTA @ COLO · 100.0%

UTAH 27–24 COLO

UTA covers the spread 100% vs COLO 20%. Laying points (-14.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#4 · Spread L

ORST -18.5 -106 · FanDuel

WSU @ ORST · 100.0%

WSU 30–48 ORST

ORST covers the spread 100% vs WSU 66.7%. Laying points (-18.5); best -106 at FanDuel.

#5 · Spread W

BYU +10.5 -105 · Hard Rock Bet

ND @ BYU · 100.0%

ND 24–28 BYU

BYU covers the spread 100% vs ND 66.7%. Taking points (+10.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.

#6 · Spread L

UNM -14.5 -105 · Hard Rock Bet

UNM @ HAW · 100.0%

UNM 21–10 HAW

UNM covers the spread 100% vs HAW 33.3%. Laying points (-14.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.

#7 · Spread L

FRES -7.5 -102 · DraftKings

FRES @ SDSU · 83.3%

FRES 23–26 SDSU

FRES covers the spread 83.3% vs SDSU 16.7%. Laying points (-7.5); best -102 at DraftKings.

#8 · Spread W

NEB +6.5 -105 · Hard Rock Bet

NEB @ ORE · 83.3%

NEB 14–17 ORE

NEB covers the spread 83.3% vs ORE 40%. Taking points (+6.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.

#9 · Spread L

UGA -19.5 -110 · DraftKings

AUB @ UGA · 83.3%

AUB 27–24 UGA

UGA covers the spread 83.3% vs AUB 20%. Laying points (-19.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#10 · Spread L

UTSA -6.5 -115 · DraftKings

NAVY @ UTSA · 80.0%

NAVY 34–38 UTSA

UTSA covers the spread 80% vs NAVY 20%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#11 · Spread L

BAY -5.5 -110 · DraftKings

TCU @ BAY · 80.0%

TCU 17–6 BAY

BAY covers the spread 80% vs TCU 40%. Laying points (-5.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#12 · Spread L

MIA -20.5 -105 · DraftKings

FSU @ MIA · 80.0%

FSU 35–43 MIA

MIA covers the spread 80% vs FSU 40%. Laying points (-20.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#13 · Spread L

MSST +17.5 -105 · Hard Rock Bet

MSST @ LSU · 80.0%

MSST 0–31 LSU

MSST covers the spread 80% vs LSU 33.3%. Taking points (+17.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.

#14 · Spread W

LT -15.5 -108 · DraftKings

LT @ ULM · 80.0%

LT 24–0 ULM

LT covers the spread 80% vs ULM 20%. Laying points (-15.5); best -108 at DraftKings.

#15 · ML L

DUKE ML -155 · DraftKings

UNC @ DUKE · 80.0%

UNC 24–20 DUKE

ML: DUKE best -155 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 80% vs UNC 60%.

#16 · Spread W

OKST +4.5 -110 · DraftKings

OKST @ HOU · 80.0%

OKST 32–35 HOU

OKST covers the spread 80% vs HOU 50%. Taking points (+4.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#17 · ML W

AFA ML -110 · FanDuel

UNLV @ AFA · 80.0%

UNLV 31–41 AFA

ML: AFA best -110 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 80% vs UNLV 66.7%.

#18 · Total points L

Over 55.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

MSST @ LSU · 72.0%

MSST 0–31 LSU (31)

Total: Covers consensus 72% over 55.5. MSST over 60% and LSU over 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#19 · Total points W

Over 55.5 -112 · DraftKings

LOU @ SYR · 72.0%

LOU 34–26 SYR (60)

Total: Covers consensus 72% over 55.5. LOU over 83.3% and SYR over 60%. Best -112 at DraftKings.

#20 · Total points W

Over 55.5 -105 · DraftKings

KU @ KSU · 70.0%

KU 24–35 KSU (59)

Total: Covers consensus 70% over 55.5. KU over 60% and KSU over 60%. Best -105 at DraftKings.

#21 · Total points W

Over 62.5 -110 · DraftKings

OKST @ HOU · 70.0%

OKST 32–35 HOU (67)

Total: Covers consensus 70% over 62.5. OKST over 60% and HOU over 66.7%. Best -110 at DraftKings.

#22 · Spread W

OSU -2.5 -118 · FanDuel

OSU @ IU · 66.7%

OSU 19–15 IU

OSU covers the spread 66.7% vs IU 16.7%. Laying points (-2.5); best -118 at FanDuel.

#23 · Spread L

PITT -5.5 -115 · FanDuel

PITT @ BC · 66.7%

PITT 21–27 BC

PITT covers the spread 66.7% vs BC 60%. Laying points (-5.5); best -115 at FanDuel.

#24 · Spread L

ALA -7.5 -110 · FanDuel

ALA @ TENN · 66.7%

ALA 10–26 TENN

ALA covers the spread 66.7% vs TENN 50%. Laying points (-7.5); best -110 at FanDuel.

#25 · Spread L

LOU -14.5 -110 · FanDuel

LOU @ SYR · 66.7%

LOU 34–26 SYR

LOU covers the spread 66.7% vs SYR 40%. Laying points (-14.5); best -110 at FanDuel.

#26 · Total points L

Over 56.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

LT @ ULM · 66.0%

LT 24–0 ULM (24)

Total: Covers consensus 66% over 56.5. LT over 100% and ULM over 80%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#27 · Total points W

Over 50.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

ASU @ TTU · 64.0%

ASU 25–53 TTU (78)

Total: Covers consensus 64% over 50.5. ASU over 60% and TTU over 60%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#28 · Total points L

Under 47.5 -105 · DraftKings

UNLV @ AFA · 64.0%

UNLV 31–41 AFA (72)

Total: Covers consensus 64% under 47.5. UNLV under 83.3% and AFA under 60%. Best -105 at DraftKings.

#29 · Total points L

Over 43.5 -110 · FanDuel

WIS @ UCLA · 61.0%

WIS 7–17 UCLA (24)

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 43.5. WIS over 60% and UCLA over 60%. Best -110 at FanDuel.

#30 · Total points W

Over 63.5 -108 · DraftKings

CIN @ WVU · 61.0%

CIN 42–45 WVU (87)

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 63.5. CIN over 60% and WVU over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#31 · Total points L

Under 41.5 -105 · DraftKings

NIU @ WYO · 60.0%

NIU 23–41 WYO (64)

Total: Covers consensus 60% under 41.5. NIU under 60% and WYO under 83.3%. Best -105 at DraftKings.

#32 · Total points W

Over 56.5 -108 · DraftKings

GT @ VT · 60.0%

GT 24–34 VT (58)

Total: Covers consensus 60% over 56.5. GT over 60% and VT over 66.7%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#33 · Total points W

Over 46.5 -108 · DraftKings

BALL @ BGSU · 58.0%

BALL 32–31 BGSU (63)

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 46.5. BALL over 83.3% and BGSU over 66.7%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#34 · Total points W

Over 56.5 -111 · FanDuel

RUTG @ MD · 54.0%

RUTG 37–30 MD (67)

Total: Covers consensus 54% over 56.5. RUTG over 80% and MD over 83.3%. Best -111 at FanDuel.

#35 · Spread L

VAN -5.5 -115 · FanDuel

ARK @ VAN · 50.0%

ARK 31–21 VAN

VAN covers the spread 50% vs ARK 33.3%. Laying points (-5.5); best -115 at FanDuel.

#36 · Spread L

MD -5.5 -115 · FanDuel

RUTG @ MD · 50.0%

RUTG 37–30 MD

MD covers the spread 50% vs RUTG 40%. Laying points (-5.5); best -115 at FanDuel.

#37 · Spread W

SJSU -6.5 -118 · FanDuel

SJSU @ UTEP · 50.0%

SJSU 24–11 UTEP

SJSU covers the spread 50% vs UTEP 16.7%. Laying points (-6.5); best -118 at FanDuel.

#38 · Spread W

FLA +12.5 -108 · FanDuel

FLA @ TEX · 50.0%

FLA 27–24 TEX

FLA covers the spread 50% vs TEX 20%. Taking points (+12.5); best -108 at FanDuel.

#39 · Spread L

EMU +6.5 +100 · FanDuel

TOL @ EMU · 42.9%

TOL 34–14 EMU

EMU covers the spread 42.9% vs TOL 40%. Taking points (+6.5); best +100 at FanDuel.

#40 · Spread L

WMU -7.5 -106 · FanDuel

WMU @ CMU · 40.0%

WMU 21–14 CMU

WMU covers the spread 40% vs CMU 33.3%. Laying points (-7.5); best -106 at FanDuel.

#41 · Spread W

WYO -7.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

NIU @ WYO · 33.3%

NIU 23–41 WYO

WYO covers the spread 33.3% vs NIU 20%. Laying points (-7.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 ML UCLA ML WIS @ UCLA -135 DraftKings 100.0 WIS 7–17 UCLA W ML: UCLA best -135 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs WIS 80%.
2 Spread UCLA -2.5 WIS @ UCLA -110 Hard Rock Bet 100.0 WIS 7–17 UCLA W UCLA covers the spread 100% vs WIS 60%. Laying points (-2.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
3 Spread UTA -14.5 UTA @ COLO -110 Hard Rock Bet 100.0 UTAH 27–24 COLO L UTA covers the spread 100% vs COLO 20%. Laying points (-14.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
4 Spread ORST -18.5 WSU @ ORST -106 FanDuel 100.0 WSU 30–48 ORST L ORST covers the spread 100% vs WSU 66.7%. Laying points (-18.5); best -106 at FanDuel.
5 Spread BYU +10.5 ND @ BYU -105 Hard Rock Bet 100.0 ND 24–28 BYU W BYU covers the spread 100% vs ND 66.7%. Taking points (+10.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.
6 Spread UNM -14.5 UNM @ HAW -105 Hard Rock Bet 100.0 UNM 21–10 HAW L UNM covers the spread 100% vs HAW 33.3%. Laying points (-14.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.
7 Spread FRES -7.5 FRES @ SDSU -102 DraftKings 83.3 FRES 23–26 SDSU L FRES covers the spread 83.3% vs SDSU 16.7%. Laying points (-7.5); best -102 at DraftKings.
8 Spread NEB +6.5 NEB @ ORE -105 Hard Rock Bet 83.3 NEB 14–17 ORE W NEB covers the spread 83.3% vs ORE 40%. Taking points (+6.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.
9 Spread UGA -19.5 AUB @ UGA -110 DraftKings 83.3 AUB 27–24 UGA L UGA covers the spread 83.3% vs AUB 20%. Laying points (-19.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
10 Spread UTSA -6.5 NAVY @ UTSA -115 DraftKings 80.0 NAVY 34–38 UTSA L UTSA covers the spread 80% vs NAVY 20%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
11 Spread BAY -5.5 TCU @ BAY -110 DraftKings 80.0 TCU 17–6 BAY L BAY covers the spread 80% vs TCU 40%. Laying points (-5.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
12 Spread MIA -20.5 FSU @ MIA -105 DraftKings 80.0 FSU 35–43 MIA L MIA covers the spread 80% vs FSU 40%. Laying points (-20.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
13 Spread MSST +17.5 MSST @ LSU -105 Hard Rock Bet 80.0 MSST 0–31 LSU L MSST covers the spread 80% vs LSU 33.3%. Taking points (+17.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.
14 Spread LT -15.5 LT @ ULM -108 DraftKings 80.0 LT 24–0 ULM W LT covers the spread 80% vs ULM 20%. Laying points (-15.5); best -108 at DraftKings.
15 ML DUKE ML UNC @ DUKE -155 DraftKings 80.0 UNC 24–20 DUKE L ML: DUKE best -155 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 80% vs UNC 60%.
16 Spread OKST +4.5 OKST @ HOU -110 DraftKings 80.0 OKST 32–35 HOU W OKST covers the spread 80% vs HOU 50%. Taking points (+4.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
17 ML AFA ML UNLV @ AFA -110 FanDuel 80.0 UNLV 31–41 AFA W ML: AFA best -110 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 80% vs UNLV 66.7%.
18 Total points Over 55.5 MSST @ LSU -110 Hard Rock Bet 72.0 MSST 0–31 LSU (31) L Total: Covers consensus 72% over 55.5. MSST over 60% and LSU over 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
19 Total points Over 55.5 LOU @ SYR -112 DraftKings 72.0 LOU 34–26 SYR (60) W Total: Covers consensus 72% over 55.5. LOU over 83.3% and SYR over 60%. Best -112 at DraftKings.
20 Total points Over 55.5 KU @ KSU -105 DraftKings 70.0 KU 24–35 KSU (59) W Total: Covers consensus 70% over 55.5. KU over 60% and KSU over 60%. Best -105 at DraftKings.
21 Total points Over 62.5 OKST @ HOU -110 DraftKings 70.0 OKST 32–35 HOU (67) W Total: Covers consensus 70% over 62.5. OKST over 60% and HOU over 66.7%. Best -110 at DraftKings.
22 Spread OSU -2.5 OSU @ IU -118 FanDuel 66.7 OSU 19–15 IU W OSU covers the spread 66.7% vs IU 16.7%. Laying points (-2.5); best -118 at FanDuel.
23 Spread PITT -5.5 PITT @ BC -115 FanDuel 66.7 PITT 21–27 BC L PITT covers the spread 66.7% vs BC 60%. Laying points (-5.5); best -115 at FanDuel.
24 Spread ALA -7.5 ALA @ TENN -110 FanDuel 66.7 ALA 10–26 TENN L ALA covers the spread 66.7% vs TENN 50%. Laying points (-7.5); best -110 at FanDuel.
25 Spread LOU -14.5 LOU @ SYR -110 FanDuel 66.7 LOU 34–26 SYR L LOU covers the spread 66.7% vs SYR 40%. Laying points (-14.5); best -110 at FanDuel.
26 Total points Over 56.5 LT @ ULM -110 Hard Rock Bet 66.0 LT 24–0 ULM (24) L Total: Covers consensus 66% over 56.5. LT over 100% and ULM over 80%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
27 Total points Over 50.5 ASU @ TTU -110 Hard Rock Bet 64.0 ASU 25–53 TTU (78) W Total: Covers consensus 64% over 50.5. ASU over 60% and TTU over 60%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
28 Total points Under 47.5 UNLV @ AFA -105 DraftKings 64.0 UNLV 31–41 AFA (72) L Total: Covers consensus 64% under 47.5. UNLV under 83.3% and AFA under 60%. Best -105 at DraftKings.
29 Total points Over 43.5 WIS @ UCLA -110 FanDuel 61.0 WIS 7–17 UCLA (24) L Total: Covers consensus 61% over 43.5. WIS over 60% and UCLA over 60%. Best -110 at FanDuel.
30 Total points Over 63.5 CIN @ WVU -108 DraftKings 61.0 CIN 42–45 WVU (87) W Total: Covers consensus 61% over 63.5. CIN over 60% and WVU over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
31 Total points Under 41.5 NIU @ WYO -105 DraftKings 60.0 NIU 23–41 WYO (64) L Total: Covers consensus 60% under 41.5. NIU under 60% and WYO under 83.3%. Best -105 at DraftKings.
32 Total points Over 56.5 GT @ VT -108 DraftKings 60.0 GT 24–34 VT (58) W Total: Covers consensus 60% over 56.5. GT over 60% and VT over 66.7%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
33 Total points Over 46.5 BALL @ BGSU -108 DraftKings 58.0 BALL 32–31 BGSU (63) W Total: Covers consensus 58% over 46.5. BALL over 83.3% and BGSU over 66.7%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
34 Total points Over 56.5 RUTG @ MD -111 FanDuel 54.0 RUTG 37–30 MD (67) W Total: Covers consensus 54% over 56.5. RUTG over 80% and MD over 83.3%. Best -111 at FanDuel.
35 Spread VAN -5.5 ARK @ VAN -115 FanDuel 50.0 ARK 31–21 VAN L VAN covers the spread 50% vs ARK 33.3%. Laying points (-5.5); best -115 at FanDuel.
36 Spread MD -5.5 RUTG @ MD -115 FanDuel 50.0 RUTG 37–30 MD L MD covers the spread 50% vs RUTG 40%. Laying points (-5.5); best -115 at FanDuel.
37 Spread SJSU -6.5 SJSU @ UTEP -118 FanDuel 50.0 SJSU 24–11 UTEP W SJSU covers the spread 50% vs UTEP 16.7%. Laying points (-6.5); best -118 at FanDuel.
38 Spread FLA +12.5 FLA @ TEX -108 FanDuel 50.0 FLA 27–24 TEX W FLA covers the spread 50% vs TEX 20%. Taking points (+12.5); best -108 at FanDuel.
39 Spread EMU +6.5 TOL @ EMU +100 FanDuel 42.9 TOL 34–14 EMU L EMU covers the spread 42.9% vs TOL 40%. Taking points (+6.5); best +100 at FanDuel.
40 Spread WMU -7.5 WMU @ CMU -106 FanDuel 40.0 WMU 21–14 CMU L WMU covers the spread 40% vs CMU 33.3%. Laying points (-7.5); best -106 at FanDuel.
41 Spread WYO -7.5 NIU @ WYO -110 Hard Rock Bet 33.3 NIU 23–41 WYO W WYO covers the spread 33.3% vs NIU 20%. Laying points (-7.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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