Week 1

Monday, Sep 14

Priced Sep 13, 2026, 11:46 AM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 1–1

ML, total, and spread when signals stack — best book price.

Total W

Under 44.5 -112

Best available · 53.0%

Total: Covers consensus 53% under 44.5. DEN under 57.9% and KC under 76.5%.

Spread L

DEN +2.5 -110

Best available · 50.0%

DEN covers the spread 50% vs KC 37.5%. Taking points (+2.5) at -110.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

1–1

Day

7–3

Last 10

8–6

Last 20

0 / 1 / 1

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on run lines) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

DEN @ KC Under 44.5

DEN @ KC DEN +2.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · Total W

Under 44.5 -112

DEN @ KC · 53.0%

DEN 10–31 KC (41)

Total: Covers consensus 53% under 44.5. DEN under 57.9% and KC under 76.5%.

#2 · Spread L

DEN +2.5 -110

DEN @ KC · 50.0%

DEN 10–31 KC

DEN covers the spread 50% vs KC 37.5%. Taking points (+2.5) at -110.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	Total	Under 44.5 DEN @ KC	-112	—	53.0	DEN 10–31 KC (41)	W	Total: Covers consensus 53% under 44.5. DEN under 57.9% and KC under 76.5%.
2	Spread	DEN +2.5 DEN @ KC	-110	—	50.0	DEN 10–31 KC	L	DEN covers the spread 50% vs KC 37.5%. Taking points (+2.5) at -110.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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