Week 1

Sep 10 – Sep 14

All NFL picks for this week. Graded live from ESPN.

ML, total, and spread when signals stack — best book price.

Thursday, Sep 10

SF @ LA

ML L

LA ML -205

Best available · 70.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: LA priced -205; TeamRankings win% 70% vs SF 68.4%.

Sunday, Sep 13

CLE @ JAX

Spread W

JAX -8.5 -112

Best available · 66.7%

JAX covers the spread 66.7% vs CLE 47.1%. Laying points (-8.5) at -112.

Sunday, Sep 13

CHI @ CAR

ML W

CHI ML -166

Best available · 63.2% · lean only (past -160)

ML: CHI priced -166; TeamRankings win% 63.2% vs CAR 44.4%.

Spread W

CHI -2.5 -112

Best available · 63.2%

CHI covers the spread 63.2% vs CAR 61.1%. Laying points (-2.5) at -112.

Sunday, Sep 13

DAL @ NYG

ML L

DAL ML -166

Best available · 43.8% · lean only (past -160)

ML: DAL priced -166; TeamRankings win% 43.8% vs NYG 23.5%.

Total L

Over 48.5 -118

Best available · 57.0%

Total: Covers consensus 57% over 48.5. DAL over 75% and NYG over 64.7%.

Sunday, Sep 13

WSH @ PHI

Spread L

PHI -5.5 -112

Best available · 55.6%

PHI covers the spread 55.6% vs WSH 41.2%. Laying points (-5.5) at -112.

Sunday, Sep 13

ATL @ PIT

ML W

PIT ML -298

Best available · 55.6% · lean only (past -160)

ML: PIT priced -298; TeamRankings win% 55.6% vs ATL 47.1%.

Monday, Sep 14

DEN @ KC

Total W

Under 44.5 -112

Best available · 53.0%

Total: Covers consensus 53% under 44.5. DEN under 57.9% and KC under 76.5%.

Spread L

DEN +2.5 -110

Best available · 50.0%

DEN covers the spread 50% vs KC 37.5%. Taking points (+2.5) at -110.

Sunday, Sep 13

NO @ DET

ML W

DET ML -325

Best available · 52.9% · lean only (past -160)

ML: DET priced -325; TeamRankings win% 52.9% vs NO 35.3%.

Sunday, Sep 13

BAL @ IND

Total W

Over 48.5 -102

Best available · 51.0%

Total: Covers consensus 51% over 48.5. BAL over 64.7% and IND over 52.9%.

Sunday, Sep 13

ARI @ LAC

Spread L

LAC -9.5 -110

Best available · 47.1%

LAC covers the spread 47.1% vs ARI 35.3%. Laying points (-9.5) at -110.

Sunday, Sep 13

TB @ CIN

Spread W

CIN -3.5 -118

Best available · 47.1%

CIN covers the spread 47.1% vs TB 29.4%. Laying points (-3.5) at -118.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

5–4

Week

7–3

Last 10

8–6

Last 20

0 / 3 / 6

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on run lines) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

CLE @ JAX JAX -8.5

CHI @ CAR CHI -2.5

DAL @ NYG Over 48.5

WSH @ PHI PHI -5.5

DEN @ KC Under 44.5

BAL @ IND Over 48.5

DEN @ KC DEN +2.5

ARI @ LAC LAC -9.5

TB @ CIN CIN -3.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · Spread W

JAX -8.5 -112

Sunday, Sep 13 · CLE @ JAX · 66.7%

CLE 10–34 JAX

JAX covers the spread 66.7% vs CLE 47.1%. Laying points (-8.5) at -112.

#2 · Spread W

CHI -2.5 -112

Sunday, Sep 13 · CHI @ CAR · 63.2%

CHI 59–37 CAR

CHI covers the spread 63.2% vs CAR 61.1%. Laying points (-2.5) at -112.

#3 · Total L

Over 48.5 -118

Sunday, Sep 13 · DAL @ NYG · 57.0%

DAL 20–28 NYG (48)

Total: Covers consensus 57% over 48.5. DAL over 75% and NYG over 64.7%.

#4 · Spread L

PHI -5.5 -112

Sunday, Sep 13 · WSH @ PHI · 55.6%

WSH 22–24 PHI

PHI covers the spread 55.6% vs WSH 41.2%. Laying points (-5.5) at -112.

#5 · Total W

Under 44.5 -112

Monday, Sep 14 · DEN @ KC · 53.0%

DEN 10–31 KC (41)

Total: Covers consensus 53% under 44.5. DEN under 57.9% and KC under 76.5%.

#6 · Total W

Over 48.5 -102

Sunday, Sep 13 · BAL @ IND · 51.0%

BAL 41–23 IND (64)

Total: Covers consensus 51% over 48.5. BAL over 64.7% and IND over 52.9%.

#7 · Spread L

DEN +2.5 -110

Monday, Sep 14 · DEN @ KC · 50.0%

DEN 10–31 KC

DEN covers the spread 50% vs KC 37.5%. Taking points (+2.5) at -110.

#8 · Spread L

LAC -9.5 -110

Sunday, Sep 13 · ARI @ LAC · 47.1%

ARI 26–14 LAC

LAC covers the spread 47.1% vs ARI 35.3%. Laying points (-9.5) at -110.

#9 · Spread W

CIN -3.5 -118

Sunday, Sep 13 · TB @ CIN · 47.1%

TB 27–33 CIN

CIN covers the spread 47.1% vs TB 29.4%. Laying points (-3.5) at -118.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	Spread	JAX -8.5 Sunday, Sep 13 · CLE @ JAX	-112	—	66.7	CLE 10–34 JAX	W	JAX covers the spread 66.7% vs CLE 47.1%. Laying points (-8.5) at -112.
2	Spread	CHI -2.5 Sunday, Sep 13 · CHI @ CAR	-112	—	63.2	CHI 59–37 CAR	W	CHI covers the spread 63.2% vs CAR 61.1%. Laying points (-2.5) at -112.
3	Total	Over 48.5 Sunday, Sep 13 · DAL @ NYG	-118	—	57.0	DAL 20–28 NYG (48)	L	Total: Covers consensus 57% over 48.5. DAL over 75% and NYG over 64.7%.
4	Spread	PHI -5.5 Sunday, Sep 13 · WSH @ PHI	-112	—	55.6	WSH 22–24 PHI	L	PHI covers the spread 55.6% vs WSH 41.2%. Laying points (-5.5) at -112.
5	Total	Under 44.5 Monday, Sep 14 · DEN @ KC	-112	—	53.0	DEN 10–31 KC (41)	W	Total: Covers consensus 53% under 44.5. DEN under 57.9% and KC under 76.5%.
6	Total	Over 48.5 Sunday, Sep 13 · BAL @ IND	-102	—	51.0	BAL 41–23 IND (64)	W	Total: Covers consensus 51% over 48.5. BAL over 64.7% and IND over 52.9%.
7	Spread	DEN +2.5 Monday, Sep 14 · DEN @ KC	-110	—	50.0	DEN 10–31 KC	L	DEN covers the spread 50% vs KC 37.5%. Taking points (+2.5) at -110.
8	Spread	LAC -9.5 Sunday, Sep 13 · ARI @ LAC	-110	—	47.1	ARI 26–14 LAC	L	LAC covers the spread 47.1% vs ARI 35.3%. Laying points (-9.5) at -110.
9	Spread	CIN -3.5 Sunday, Sep 13 · TB @ CIN	-118	—	47.1	TB 27–33 CIN	W	CIN covers the spread 47.1% vs TB 29.4%. Laying points (-3.5) at -118.

Days: Thursday, Sep 10 · Sunday, Sep 13 · Monday, Sep 14

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.