← NFL picks

Week 6

Oct 18 – Oct 19

All NFL picks for this week. Graded live from ESPN.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

9–10

Week

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

5 / 6 / 8

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
HOU @ JAX JAX ML
NO @ NYG NYG -1.5
WSH @ SF SF -7.5
NO @ NYG NYG ML
BUF @ LV Over 53.5
ARI @ LA Over 51.5
TEN @ IND IND -6.5
HOU @ JAX JAX -2.5
CHI @ ATL CHI ML
PIT @ TB PIT ML
PIT @ TB PIT -2.5
DAL @ GB GB ML
BAL @ CLE CLE +3.5
WSH @ SF Over 51.5
NO @ NYG Over 45.5
BAL @ CLE Over 39.5
NYJ @ NE Under 43.5
LAC @ KC KC -7.5
CAR @ PHI CAR -3.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · ML L

JAX ML -142 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 18 · HOU @ JAX · 80.0%

HOU 34–31 JAX

ML: JAX best -142 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 80% vs HOU 20%.

#2 · Spread L

NYG -1.5 +102 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 18 · NO @ NYG · 80.0%

NO 34–27 NYG

NYG covers the spread 80% vs NO 40%. Laying points (-1.5); best +102 at DraftKings.

#3 · Spread L

SF -7.5 -108 · DraftKings

Monday, Oct 19 · WSH @ SF · 80.0%

WSH 17–23 SF

SF covers the spread 80% vs WSH 40%. Laying points (-7.5); best -108 at DraftKings.

#4 · ML L

NYG ML -106 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 18 · NO @ NYG · 75.0%

NO 34–27 NYG

ML: NYG best -106 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 75% vs NO 20%.

#5 · Total points W

Over 53.5 -110 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 18 · BUF @ LV · 71.0%

BUF 33–30 LV (63)

Total: Covers consensus 71% over 53.5. BUF over 80% and LV over 60%. Best -110 at FanDuel.

#6 · Total points L

Over 51.5 -110 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 18 · ARI @ LA · 68.0%

ARI 18–16 LAR (34)

Total: Covers consensus 68% over 51.5. ARI over 60% and LA over 60%. Best -110 at FanDuel.

#7 · Spread L

IND -6.5 -115 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Oct 18 · TEN @ IND · 60.0%

TEN 26–20 IND

IND covers the spread 60% vs TEN 40%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at Hard Rock Bet.

#8 · Spread L

JAX -2.5 -118 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 18 · HOU @ JAX · 60.0%

HOU 34–31 JAX

JAX covers the spread 60% vs HOU 20%. Laying points (-2.5); best -118 at DraftKings.

#9 · ML W

CHI ML -115 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Oct 18 · CHI @ ATL · 60.0%

CHI 31–23 ATL

ML: CHI best -115 (Hard Rock Bet); TeamRankings win% 60% vs ATL 40%.

#10 · ML W

PIT ML -145 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Oct 18 · PIT @ TB · 60.0%

PIT 26–19 TB

ML: PIT best -145 (Hard Rock Bet); TeamRankings win% 60% vs TB 20%.

#11 · Spread W

PIT -2.5 -112 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 18 · PIT @ TB · 60.0%

PIT 26–19 TB

PIT covers the spread 60% vs TB 20%. Laying points (-2.5); best -112 at FanDuel.

#12 · ML W

GB ML -115 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 18 · DAL @ GB · 60.0%

DAL 13–23 GB

ML: GB best -115 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 60% vs DAL 40%.

#13 · Spread W

CLE +3.5 -128 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 18 · BAL @ CLE · 60.0%

BAL 10–13 CLE

CLE covers the spread 60% vs BAL 40%. Taking points (+3.5); best -128 at FanDuel.

#14 · Total points L

Over 51.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

Monday, Oct 19 · WSH @ SF · 56.0%

WSH 17–23 SF (40)

Total: Covers consensus 56% over 51.5. WSH over 80% and SF over 60%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#15 · Total points W

Over 45.5 -110 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 18 · NO @ NYG · 55.0%

NO 34–27 NYG (61)

Total: Covers consensus 55% over 45.5. NO over 60% and NYG over 60%. Best -110 at FanDuel.

#16 · Total points L

Over 39.5 -105 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 18 · BAL @ CLE · 53.0%

BAL 10–13 CLE (23)

Total: Covers consensus 53% over 39.5. BAL over 60% and CLE over 60%. Best -105 at FanDuel.

#17 · Total points L

Under 43.5 -108 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 18 · NYJ @ NE · 51.0%

NYJ 19–26 NE (45)

Total: Covers consensus 51% under 43.5. NYJ under 80% and NE under 60%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#18 · Spread W

KC -7.5 -105 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 18 · LAC @ KC · 50.0%

LAC 6–22 KC

KC covers the spread 50% vs LAC 0%. Laying points (-7.5); best -105 at FanDuel.

#19 · Spread W

CAR -3.5 +100 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Oct 18 · CAR @ PHI · 50.0%

CAR 25–14 PHI

CAR covers the spread 50% vs PHI 20%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at Hard Rock Bet.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 ML JAX ML Sunday, Oct 18 · HOU @ JAX -142 DraftKings 80.0 HOU 34–31 JAX L ML: JAX best -142 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 80% vs HOU 20%.
2 Spread NYG -1.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · NO @ NYG +102 DraftKings 80.0 NO 34–27 NYG L NYG covers the spread 80% vs NO 40%. Laying points (-1.5); best +102 at DraftKings.
3 Spread SF -7.5 Monday, Oct 19 · WSH @ SF -108 DraftKings 80.0 WSH 17–23 SF L SF covers the spread 80% vs WSH 40%. Laying points (-7.5); best -108 at DraftKings.
4 ML NYG ML Sunday, Oct 18 · NO @ NYG -106 FanDuel 75.0 NO 34–27 NYG L ML: NYG best -106 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 75% vs NO 20%.
5 Total points Over 53.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · BUF @ LV -110 FanDuel 71.0 BUF 33–30 LV (63) W Total: Covers consensus 71% over 53.5. BUF over 80% and LV over 60%. Best -110 at FanDuel.
6 Total points Over 51.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · ARI @ LA -110 FanDuel 68.0 ARI 18–16 LAR (34) L Total: Covers consensus 68% over 51.5. ARI over 60% and LA over 60%. Best -110 at FanDuel.
7 Spread IND -6.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · TEN @ IND -115 Hard Rock Bet 60.0 TEN 26–20 IND L IND covers the spread 60% vs TEN 40%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at Hard Rock Bet.
8 Spread JAX -2.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · HOU @ JAX -118 DraftKings 60.0 HOU 34–31 JAX L JAX covers the spread 60% vs HOU 20%. Laying points (-2.5); best -118 at DraftKings.
9 ML CHI ML Sunday, Oct 18 · CHI @ ATL -115 Hard Rock Bet 60.0 CHI 31–23 ATL W ML: CHI best -115 (Hard Rock Bet); TeamRankings win% 60% vs ATL 40%.
10 ML PIT ML Sunday, Oct 18 · PIT @ TB -145 Hard Rock Bet 60.0 PIT 26–19 TB W ML: PIT best -145 (Hard Rock Bet); TeamRankings win% 60% vs TB 20%.
11 Spread PIT -2.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · PIT @ TB -112 FanDuel 60.0 PIT 26–19 TB W PIT covers the spread 60% vs TB 20%. Laying points (-2.5); best -112 at FanDuel.
12 ML GB ML Sunday, Oct 18 · DAL @ GB -115 DraftKings 60.0 DAL 13–23 GB W ML: GB best -115 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 60% vs DAL 40%.
13 Spread CLE +3.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · BAL @ CLE -128 FanDuel 60.0 BAL 10–13 CLE W CLE covers the spread 60% vs BAL 40%. Taking points (+3.5); best -128 at FanDuel.
14 Total points Over 51.5 Monday, Oct 19 · WSH @ SF -110 Hard Rock Bet 56.0 WSH 17–23 SF (40) L Total: Covers consensus 56% over 51.5. WSH over 80% and SF over 60%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
15 Total points Over 45.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · NO @ NYG -110 FanDuel 55.0 NO 34–27 NYG (61) W Total: Covers consensus 55% over 45.5. NO over 60% and NYG over 60%. Best -110 at FanDuel.
16 Total points Over 39.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · BAL @ CLE -105 FanDuel 53.0 BAL 10–13 CLE (23) L Total: Covers consensus 53% over 39.5. BAL over 60% and CLE over 60%. Best -105 at FanDuel.
17 Total points Under 43.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · NYJ @ NE -108 DraftKings 51.0 NYJ 19–26 NE (45) L Total: Covers consensus 51% under 43.5. NYJ under 80% and NE under 60%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
18 Spread KC -7.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · LAC @ KC -105 FanDuel 50.0 LAC 6–22 KC W KC covers the spread 50% vs LAC 0%. Laying points (-7.5); best -105 at FanDuel.
19 Spread CAR -3.5 Sunday, Oct 18 · CAR @ PHI +100 Hard Rock Bet 50.0 CAR 25–14 PHI W CAR covers the spread 50% vs PHI 20%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at Hard Rock Bet.

Days: Sunday, Oct 18 · Monday, Oct 19

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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