Week 7

Oct 22 – Oct 26

All NFL picks for this week. Graded live from ESPN.

Every game stays on the slate. ML, total, and spread when signals stack — best book price. Otherwise the market stays blank.

Thursday, Oct 22

Final

NE @ CHI

CHI

No pick

Spread W

CHI -2.5 -130

FanDuel · 66.7%

CHI covers the spread 66.7% vs NE 60%. Laying points (-2.5); best -130 at FanDuel.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

PIT @ NO

PIT

ML W

PIT ML -158

FanDuel · 66.7%

ML: PIT best -158 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs NO 33.3%.

Spread

No pick

Total points L

Over 43.5 -105

DraftKings · 61.0%

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 43.5. PIT over 66.7% and NO over 66.7%. Best -105 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

CIN @ BAL

CIN

BAL

No pick

Spread W

CIN -2.5 -120

FanDuel · 40.0%

CIN covers the spread 40% vs BAL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

CLE @ TEN

CLE

TEN

ML W

CLE ML -130

DraftKings · 66.7%

ML: CLE best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs TEN 16.7%.

Spread W

CLE -1.5 -110

DraftKings · 66.7%

CLE covers the spread 66.7% vs TEN 50%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

IND @ MIN

IND

MIN

ML W

MIN ML -325

DraftKings · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: MIN best -325 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs IND 33.3%.

Spread L

MIN -6.5 -115

DraftKings · 80.0%

MIN covers the spread 80% vs IND 50%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

MIA @ NYJ

MIA

NYJ

ML L

NYJ ML -210

FanDuel · 33.3% · lean only (past -160)

ML: NYJ best -210 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 33.3% vs MIA 0%.

Spread L

NYJ -4.5 -110

DraftKings · 80.0%

NYJ covers the spread 80% vs MIA 40%. Laying points (-4.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

Total points L

Under 39.5 -110

Hard Rock Bet · 67.0%

Total: Covers consensus 67% under 39.5. MIA under 60% and NYJ under 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

Sunday, Oct 25

Final/OT

NYG @ HOU

NYG

HOU

No pick

Spread W

NYG +10.5 -112

DraftKings · 66.7%

NYG covers the spread 66.7% vs HOU 33.3%. Taking points (+10.5); best -112 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

SF @ ATL

ATL

ML L

SF ML -142

DraftKings · 100.0%

ML: SF best -142 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs ATL 33.3%.

Spread L

SF -2.5 -115

DraftKings · 66.7%

SF covers the spread 66.7% vs ATL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

TB @ CAR

CAR

ML L

CAR ML -155

DraftKings · 60.0%

ML: CAR best -155 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 60% vs TB 16.7%.

Spread L

CAR -2.5 -122

FanDuel · 60.0%

CAR covers the spread 60% vs TB 16.7%. Laying points (-2.5); best -122 at FanDuel.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

DEN @ ARI

DEN

ARI

ML W

DEN ML -225

DraftKings · 66.7% · lean only (past -160)

ML: DEN best -225 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs ARI 33.3%.

Spread W

DEN -4.5 -108

FanDuel · 66.7%

DEN covers the spread 66.7% vs ARI 50%. Laying points (-4.5); best -108 at FanDuel.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

GB @ DET

DET

No pick

Spread

No pick

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

LA @ LV

No pick

Spread L

LV +3.5 -120

FanDuel · 83.3%

LV covers the spread 83.3% vs LA 33.3%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Oct 25

Final

KC @ SEA

SEA

No pick

Spread L

KC +2.5 +100

FanDuel · 60.0%

KC covers the spread 60% vs SEA 25%. Taking points (+2.5); best +100 at FanDuel.

Total points

No pick

Monday, Oct 26

Final

DAL @ PHI

DAL

PHI

No pick

Spread W

DAL -4.5 -108

DraftKings · 50.0%

DAL covers the spread 50% vs PHI 16.7%. Laying points (-4.5); best -108 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

8–10

Week

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

4 / 2 / 12

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

SF @ ATL SF ML

LA @ LV LV +3.5

MIA @ NYJ NYJ -4.5

IND @ MIN MIN -6.5

MIA @ NYJ Under 39.5

NE @ CHI CHI -2.5

CLE @ TEN CLE ML

CLE @ TEN CLE -1.5

NYG @ HOU NYG +10.5

SF @ ATL SF -2.5

PIT @ NO PIT ML

DEN @ ARI DEN -4.5

PIT @ NO Over 43.5

TB @ CAR CAR ML

TB @ CAR CAR -2.5

KC @ SEA KC +2.5

DAL @ PHI DAL -4.5

CIN @ BAL CIN -2.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · ML L

SF ML -142 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · SF @ ATL · 100.0%

SF 20–29 ATL

ML: SF best -142 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs ATL 33.3%.

#2 · Spread L

LV +3.5 -120 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 25 · LA @ LV · 83.3%

LAR 35–21 LV

LV covers the spread 83.3% vs LA 33.3%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

#3 · Spread L

NYJ -4.5 -110 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · MIA @ NYJ · 80.0%

MIA 28–25 NYJ

NYJ covers the spread 80% vs MIA 40%. Laying points (-4.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#4 · Spread L

MIN -6.5 -115 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · IND @ MIN · 80.0%

IND 10–16 MIN

MIN covers the spread 80% vs IND 50%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#5 · Total points L

Under 39.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Oct 25 · MIA @ NYJ · 67.0%

MIA 28–25 NYJ (53)

Total: Covers consensus 67% under 39.5. MIA under 60% and NYJ under 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#6 · Spread W

CHI -2.5 -130 · FanDuel

Thursday, Oct 22 · NE @ CHI · 66.7%

NE 24–30 CHI

CHI covers the spread 66.7% vs NE 60%. Laying points (-2.5); best -130 at FanDuel.

#7 · ML W

CLE ML -130 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · CLE @ TEN · 66.7%

CLE 27–24 TEN

ML: CLE best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs TEN 16.7%.

#8 · Spread W

CLE -1.5 -110 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · CLE @ TEN · 66.7%

CLE 27–24 TEN

CLE covers the spread 66.7% vs TEN 50%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#9 · Spread W

NYG +10.5 -112 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · NYG @ HOU · 66.7%

NYG 27–21 HOU

NYG covers the spread 66.7% vs HOU 33.3%. Taking points (+10.5); best -112 at DraftKings.

#10 · Spread L

SF -2.5 -115 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · SF @ ATL · 66.7%

SF 20–29 ATL

SF covers the spread 66.7% vs ATL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#11 · ML W

PIT ML -158 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 25 · PIT @ NO · 66.7%

PIT 16–10 NO

ML: PIT best -158 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs NO 33.3%.

#12 · Spread W

DEN -4.5 -108 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 25 · DEN @ ARI · 66.7%

DEN 30–16 ARI

DEN covers the spread 66.7% vs ARI 50%. Laying points (-4.5); best -108 at FanDuel.

#13 · Total points L

Over 43.5 -105 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · PIT @ NO · 61.0%

PIT 16–10 NO (26)

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 43.5. PIT over 66.7% and NO over 66.7%. Best -105 at DraftKings.

#14 · ML L

CAR ML -155 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 25 · TB @ CAR · 60.0%

TB 43–13 CAR

ML: CAR best -155 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 60% vs TB 16.7%.

#15 · Spread L

CAR -2.5 -122 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 25 · TB @ CAR · 60.0%

TB 43–13 CAR

CAR covers the spread 60% vs TB 16.7%. Laying points (-2.5); best -122 at FanDuel.

#16 · Spread L

KC +2.5 +100 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 25 · KC @ SEA · 60.0%

KC 3–20 SEA

KC covers the spread 60% vs SEA 25%. Taking points (+2.5); best +100 at FanDuel.

#17 · Spread W

DAL -4.5 -108 · DraftKings

Monday, Oct 26 · DAL @ PHI · 50.0%

DAL 38–21 PHI

DAL covers the spread 50% vs PHI 16.7%. Laying points (-4.5); best -108 at DraftKings.

#18 · Spread W

CIN -2.5 -120 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 25 · CIN @ BAL · 40.0%

CIN 35–13 BAL

CIN covers the spread 40% vs BAL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	ML	SF ML Sunday, Oct 25 · SF @ ATL	-142	DraftKings	100.0	SF 20–29 ATL	L	ML: SF best -142 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs ATL 33.3%.
2	Spread	LV +3.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · LA @ LV	-120	FanDuel	83.3	LAR 35–21 LV	L	LV covers the spread 83.3% vs LA 33.3%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at FanDuel.
3	Spread	NYJ -4.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · MIA @ NYJ	-110	DraftKings	80.0	MIA 28–25 NYJ	L	NYJ covers the spread 80% vs MIA 40%. Laying points (-4.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
4	Spread	MIN -6.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · IND @ MIN	-115	DraftKings	80.0	IND 10–16 MIN	L	MIN covers the spread 80% vs IND 50%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
5	Total points	Under 39.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · MIA @ NYJ	-110	Hard Rock Bet	67.0	MIA 28–25 NYJ (53)	L	Total: Covers consensus 67% under 39.5. MIA under 60% and NYJ under 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
6	Spread	CHI -2.5 Thursday, Oct 22 · NE @ CHI	-130	FanDuel	66.7	NE 24–30 CHI	W	CHI covers the spread 66.7% vs NE 60%. Laying points (-2.5); best -130 at FanDuel.
7	ML	CLE ML Sunday, Oct 25 · CLE @ TEN	-130	DraftKings	66.7	CLE 27–24 TEN	W	ML: CLE best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs TEN 16.7%.
8	Spread	CLE -1.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · CLE @ TEN	-110	DraftKings	66.7	CLE 27–24 TEN	W	CLE covers the spread 66.7% vs TEN 50%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
9	Spread	NYG +10.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · NYG @ HOU	-112	DraftKings	66.7	NYG 27–21 HOU	W	NYG covers the spread 66.7% vs HOU 33.3%. Taking points (+10.5); best -112 at DraftKings.
10	Spread	SF -2.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · SF @ ATL	-115	DraftKings	66.7	SF 20–29 ATL	L	SF covers the spread 66.7% vs ATL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
11	ML	PIT ML Sunday, Oct 25 · PIT @ NO	-158	FanDuel	66.7	PIT 16–10 NO	W	ML: PIT best -158 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs NO 33.3%.
12	Spread	DEN -4.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · DEN @ ARI	-108	FanDuel	66.7	DEN 30–16 ARI	W	DEN covers the spread 66.7% vs ARI 50%. Laying points (-4.5); best -108 at FanDuel.
13	Total points	Over 43.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · PIT @ NO	-105	DraftKings	61.0	PIT 16–10 NO (26)	L	Total: Covers consensus 61% over 43.5. PIT over 66.7% and NO over 66.7%. Best -105 at DraftKings.
14	ML	CAR ML Sunday, Oct 25 · TB @ CAR	-155	DraftKings	60.0	TB 43–13 CAR	L	ML: CAR best -155 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 60% vs TB 16.7%.
15	Spread	CAR -2.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · TB @ CAR	-122	FanDuel	60.0	TB 43–13 CAR	L	CAR covers the spread 60% vs TB 16.7%. Laying points (-2.5); best -122 at FanDuel.
16	Spread	KC +2.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · KC @ SEA	+100	FanDuel	60.0	KC 3–20 SEA	L	KC covers the spread 60% vs SEA 25%. Taking points (+2.5); best +100 at FanDuel.
17	Spread	DAL -4.5 Monday, Oct 26 · DAL @ PHI	-108	DraftKings	50.0	DAL 38–21 PHI	W	DAL covers the spread 50% vs PHI 16.7%. Laying points (-4.5); best -108 at DraftKings.
18	Spread	CIN -2.5 Sunday, Oct 25 · CIN @ BAL	-120	FanDuel	40.0	CIN 35–13 BAL	W	CIN covers the spread 40% vs BAL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

Days: Thursday, Oct 22 · Sunday, Oct 25 · Monday, Oct 26

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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