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Week 8

Oct 29 – Nov 2

All NFL picks for this week. Graded live from ESPN.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

6–7

Week

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

1 / 5 / 8

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
KC @ DEN KC ML
LV @ NYJ LV +1.5
KC @ DEN DEN +1.5
CHI @ SEA CHI +3.5
ATL @ TB Over 43.5
BAL @ BUF BUF -3.5
BAL @ BUF Over 54.5
ARI @ DAL Over 54.5
PHI @ WSH Over 40.5
KC @ DEN Under 41.0
TEN @ CIN CIN -12.5
PHI @ WSH WSH -6.5
LAC @ LA LA -6.5
ATL @ TB ATL +1.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · ML L

KC ML -115 · DraftKings

Sunday, Nov 1 · KC @ DEN · 83.3%

KC 24–28 DEN

ML: KC best -115 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 83.3% vs DEN 71.4%.

#2 · Spread W

LV +1.5 -105 · DraftKings

Sunday, Nov 1 · LV @ NYJ · 71.4%

LV 38–33 NYJ

LV covers the spread 71.4% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#3 · Spread W

DEN +1.5 -115 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Nov 1 · KC @ DEN · 71.4%

KC 24–28 DEN

DEN covers the spread 71.4% vs KC 50%. Taking points (+1.5); best -115 at Hard Rock Bet.

#4 · Spread pending

CHI +3.5 -120 · FanDuel

Monday, Nov 2 · CHI @ SEA · 71.4%

11/2 - 8:15 PM EST

CHI covers the spread 71.4% vs SEA 40%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

#5 · Total points L

Over 43.5 -102 · DraftKings

Sunday, Nov 1 · ATL @ TB · 69.0%

ATL 0–16 TB (16)

Total: Covers consensus 69% over 43.5. ATL over 57.1% and TB over 57.1%. Best -102 at DraftKings.

#6 · Spread W

BUF -3.5 +100 · FanDuel

Sunday, Nov 1 · BAL @ BUF · 66.7%

BAL 10–36 BUF

BUF covers the spread 66.7% vs BAL 28.6%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.

#7 · Total points L

Over 54.5 -112 · FanDuel

Sunday, Nov 1 · BAL @ BUF · 65.0%

BAL 10–36 BUF (46)

Total: Covers consensus 65% over 54.5. BAL over 57.1% and BUF over 83.3%. Best -112 at FanDuel.

#8 · Total points W

Over 54.5 -108 · DraftKings

Sunday, Nov 1 · ARI @ DAL · 64.0%

ARI 33–30 DAL (63)

Total: Covers consensus 64% over 54.5. ARI over 57.1% and DAL over 71.4%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#9 · Total points L

Over 40.5 -105 · FanDuel

Sunday, Nov 1 · PHI @ WSH · 62.0%

PHI 10–27 WSH (37)

Total: Covers consensus 62% over 40.5. PHI over 57.1% and WSH over 66.7%. Best -105 at FanDuel.

#10 · Total points L

Under 41.0 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Nov 1 · KC @ DEN · 57.0%

KC 24–28 DEN (52)

Total: Covers consensus 57% under 41.0. KC under 66.7% and DEN under 71.4%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#11 · Spread L

CIN -12.5 -115 · DraftKings

Sunday, Nov 1 · TEN @ CIN · 50.0%

TEN 36–43 CIN

CIN covers the spread 50% vs TEN 42.9%. Laying points (-12.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#12 · Spread W

WSH -6.5 -105 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Nov 1 · PHI @ WSH · 50.0%

PHI 10–27 WSH

WSH covers the spread 50% vs PHI 14.3%. Laying points (-6.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.

#13 · Spread W

LA -6.5 -108 · FanDuel

Sunday, Nov 1 · LAC @ LA · 42.9%

LAC 9–24 LAR

LA covers the spread 42.9% vs LAC 0%. Laying points (-6.5); best -108 at FanDuel.

#14 · Spread L

ATL +1.5 -106 · FanDuel

Sunday, Nov 1 · ATL @ TB · 42.9%

ATL 0–16 TB

ATL covers the spread 42.9% vs TB 28.6%. Taking points (+1.5); best -106 at FanDuel.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 ML KC ML Sunday, Nov 1 · KC @ DEN -115 DraftKings 83.3 KC 24–28 DEN L ML: KC best -115 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 83.3% vs DEN 71.4%.
2 Spread LV +1.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · LV @ NYJ -105 DraftKings 71.4 LV 38–33 NYJ W LV covers the spread 71.4% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+1.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
3 Spread DEN +1.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · KC @ DEN -115 Hard Rock Bet 71.4 KC 24–28 DEN W DEN covers the spread 71.4% vs KC 50%. Taking points (+1.5); best -115 at Hard Rock Bet.
4 Spread CHI +3.5 Monday, Nov 2 · CHI @ SEA -120 FanDuel 71.4 11/2 - 8:15 PM EST pending CHI covers the spread 71.4% vs SEA 40%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at FanDuel.
5 Total points Over 43.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · ATL @ TB -102 DraftKings 69.0 ATL 0–16 TB (16) L Total: Covers consensus 69% over 43.5. ATL over 57.1% and TB over 57.1%. Best -102 at DraftKings.
6 Spread BUF -3.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · BAL @ BUF +100 FanDuel 66.7 BAL 10–36 BUF W BUF covers the spread 66.7% vs BAL 28.6%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.
7 Total points Over 54.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · BAL @ BUF -112 FanDuel 65.0 BAL 10–36 BUF (46) L Total: Covers consensus 65% over 54.5. BAL over 57.1% and BUF over 83.3%. Best -112 at FanDuel.
8 Total points Over 54.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · ARI @ DAL -108 DraftKings 64.0 ARI 33–30 DAL (63) W Total: Covers consensus 64% over 54.5. ARI over 57.1% and DAL over 71.4%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
9 Total points Over 40.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · PHI @ WSH -105 FanDuel 62.0 PHI 10–27 WSH (37) L Total: Covers consensus 62% over 40.5. PHI over 57.1% and WSH over 66.7%. Best -105 at FanDuel.
10 Total points Under 41.0 Sunday, Nov 1 · KC @ DEN -110 Hard Rock Bet 57.0 KC 24–28 DEN (52) L Total: Covers consensus 57% under 41.0. KC under 66.7% and DEN under 71.4%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
11 Spread CIN -12.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · TEN @ CIN -115 DraftKings 50.0 TEN 36–43 CIN L CIN covers the spread 50% vs TEN 42.9%. Laying points (-12.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
12 Spread WSH -6.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · PHI @ WSH -105 Hard Rock Bet 50.0 PHI 10–27 WSH W WSH covers the spread 50% vs PHI 14.3%. Laying points (-6.5); best -105 at Hard Rock Bet.
13 Spread LA -6.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · LAC @ LA -108 FanDuel 42.9 LAC 9–24 LAR W LA covers the spread 42.9% vs LAC 0%. Laying points (-6.5); best -108 at FanDuel.
14 Spread ATL +1.5 Sunday, Nov 1 · ATL @ TB -106 FanDuel 42.9 ATL 0–16 TB L ATL covers the spread 42.9% vs TB 28.6%. Taking points (+1.5); best -106 at FanDuel.

Days: Thursday, Oct 29 · Sunday, Nov 1 · Monday, Nov 2

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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