← NCAAF picks · Week 4

Friday, Sep 18

Priced Sep 15, 2026, 6:06 PM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 1–2

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

1–2

Day

5–5

Last 10

10–10

Last 20

0 / 1 / 2

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
MIA @ WAKE MIA -20.5
MIA @ WAKE Over 56.5
HOU @ TTU HOU +7.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · Spread L

MIA -20.5 -115 · DraftKings

MIA @ WAKE · 100.0%

MIA 33–20 WAKE

MIA covers the spread 100% vs WAKE 0%. Laying points (-20.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#2 · Total points L

Over 56.5 -108 · DraftKings

MIA @ WAKE · 81.0%

MIA 33–20 WAKE (53)

Total: Covers consensus 81% over 56.5. MIA over 100% and WAKE over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#3 · Spread W

HOU +7.5 -115 · DraftKings

HOU @ TTU · 50.0%

HOU 26–28 TTU

HOU covers the spread 50% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+7.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 Spread MIA -20.5 MIA @ WAKE -115 DraftKings 100.0 MIA 33–20 WAKE L MIA covers the spread 100% vs WAKE 0%. Laying points (-20.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
2 Total points Over 56.5 MIA @ WAKE -108 DraftKings 81.0 MIA 33–20 WAKE (53) L Total: Covers consensus 81% over 56.5. MIA over 100% and WAKE over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
3 Spread HOU +7.5 HOU @ TTU -115 DraftKings 50.0 HOU 26–28 TTU W HOU covers the spread 50% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+7.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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