← NCAAF picks
·
Week 4
Friday, Sep 18
Priced Sep 15, 2026, 6:06 PM ET. Graded live from ESPN.
Overnight recap: 1–2
Every game stays on the slate. ML, total, and spread when signals stack — best book price. Otherwise the market stays blank.
ML
No pick
Spread
L
MIA -20.5
-115
DraftKings
· 100.0%
MIA covers the spread 100% vs WAKE 0%. Laying points (-20.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
Total points
L
Over 56.5
-108
DraftKings
· 81.0%
Total: Covers consensus 81% over 56.5. MIA over 100% and WAKE over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
ML
No pick
Spread
W
HOU +7.5
-115
DraftKings
· 50.0%
HOU covers the spread 50% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+7.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
Total points
No pick
No picks for this day.
Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).
0 / 1 / 2
ML / totals / spreads
Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started
Model probability vs market break-even
Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads)
Market break-even
Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
MIA @ WAKE MIA -20.5
MIA @ WAKE Over 56.5
HOU @ TTU HOU +7.5
#1 · Spread
L
MIA -20.5 -115 · DraftKings
MIA @ WAKE
· 100.0%
MIA 33–20 WAKE
MIA covers the spread 100% vs WAKE 0%. Laying points (-20.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
#2 · Total points
L
Over 56.5 -108 · DraftKings
MIA @ WAKE
· 81.0%
MIA 33–20 WAKE (53)
Total: Covers consensus 81% over 56.5. MIA over 100% and WAKE over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
#3 · Spread
W
HOU +7.5 -115 · DraftKings
HOU @ TTU
· 50.0%
HOU 26–28 TTU
HOU covers the spread 50% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+7.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
| # |
Type |
Bet |
Odds |
Book |
Cons. % |
Score |
Result |
Why |
| 1 |
Spread |
MIA -20.5
MIA @ WAKE
|
-115 |
DraftKings |
100.0 |
MIA 33–20 WAKE |
L
|
MIA covers the spread 100% vs WAKE 0%. Laying points (-20.5); best -115 at DraftKings. |
| 2 |
Total points |
Over 56.5
MIA @ WAKE
|
-108 |
DraftKings |
81.0 |
MIA 33–20 WAKE (53) |
L
|
Total: Covers consensus 81% over 56.5. MIA over 100% and WAKE over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings. |
| 3 |
Spread |
HOU +7.5
HOU @ TTU
|
-115 |
DraftKings |
50.0 |
HOU 26–28 TTU |
W
|
HOU covers the spread 50% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+7.5); best -115 at DraftKings. |
No picks match this filter.
Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.
Odds and consensus from Covers.com.
ATS from TeamRankings.
Finals from ESPN.
Not affiliated with those sites.
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