← NCAAF picks · Week 9

Wednesday, Oct 21

Priced Oct 21, 2026, 4:00 AM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 1–1

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

1–1

Day

5–5

Last 10

10–10

Last 20

1 / 1 / 0

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
NMSU @ SHSU Under 45.5
NMSU @ SHSU NMSU ML
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · Total points L

Under 45.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

NMSU @ SHSU · 58.0%

NMSU 30–24 SHSU (54)

Total: Covers consensus 58% under 45.5. NMSU under 66.7% and SHSU under 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#2 · ML W

NMSU ML -135 · DraftKings

NMSU @ SHSU · 33.3%

NMSU 30–24 SHSU

ML: NMSU best -135 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 33.3% vs SHSU 16.7%.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 Total points Under 45.5 NMSU @ SHSU -110 Hard Rock Bet 58.0 NMSU 30–24 SHSU (54) L Total: Covers consensus 58% under 45.5. NMSU under 66.7% and SHSU under 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
2 ML NMSU ML NMSU @ SHSU -135 DraftKings 33.3 NMSU 30–24 SHSU W ML: NMSU best -135 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 33.3% vs SHSU 16.7%.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.