← NCAAF picks

Week 3

Sep 12

All NCAAF picks for this week. Graded live from ESPN.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

9–10

Week

6–4

Last 10

11–9

Last 20

0 / 13 / 6

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on run lines) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
APP @ ECU APP +6.5
USM @ AUB USM +33.5
TTU @ ORST ORST +26.5
NDSU @ AFA AFA +1.5
GASO @ CLEM GASO +20.5
USA @ TULN USA +9.5
WKU @ UGA Over 52.5
LT @ LSU Over 55.5
UCF @ PITT Over 57.5
MD @ CONN Over 52.5
SDSU @ UCLA Over 52.5
USU @ WASH Under 56.5
ULM @ UAB Over 56.5
WAKE @ PUR Over 50.5
DEL @ VAN Under 53.5
ISU @ IOWA Under 41.5
CAL @ SYR Over 66.5
UTSA @ TXST Over 65.5
MSST @ MINN Over 52.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · Spread W

APP +6.5 -110

Saturday, Sep 12 · APP @ ECU · 100.0%

APP 27–24 ECU

APP covers the spread 100% vs ECU 0%. Taking points (+6.5) at -110.

#2 · Spread L

USM +33.5 -110

Saturday, Sep 12 · USM @ AUB · 100.0%

USM 8–43 AUB

USM covers the spread 100% vs AUB 0%. Taking points (+33.5) at -110.

#3 · Spread W

ORST +26.5 -120

Saturday, Sep 12 · TTU @ ORST · 100.0%

TTU 35–24 ORST

ORST covers the spread 100% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+26.5) at -120.

#4 · Spread L

AFA +1.5 -105

Saturday, Sep 12 · NDSU @ AFA · 100.0%

NDSU 38–32 AFA

AFA covers the spread 100% vs NDSU 50%. Taking points (+1.5) at -105.

#5 · Spread W

GASO +20.5 -112

Saturday, Sep 12 · GASO @ CLEM · 100.0%

GASO 7–22 CLEM

GASO covers the spread 100% vs CLEM 0%. Taking points (+20.5) at -112.

#6 · Spread W

USA +9.5 -105

Saturday, Sep 12 · USA @ TULN · 100.0%

USA 24–28 TULN

USA covers the spread 100% vs TULN 0%. Taking points (+9.5) at -105.

#7 · Total W

Over 52.5 -110

Saturday, Sep 12 · WKU @ UGA · 79.0%

WKU 20–70 UGA (90)

Total: Covers consensus 79% over 52.5. WKU over 100% and UGA over 100%.

#8 · Total W

Over 55.5 -112

Saturday, Sep 12 · LT @ LSU · 69.0%

LT 14–45 LSU (59)

Total: Covers consensus 69% over 55.5. LT over 100% and LSU over 100%.

#9 · Total L

Over 57.5 -106

Saturday, Sep 12 · UCF @ PITT · 64.0%

UCF 7–12 PITT (19)

Total: Covers consensus 64% over 57.5. UCF over 100% and PITT over 100%.

#10 · Total L

Over 52.5 -108

Saturday, Sep 12 · MD @ CONN · 61.0%

MD 38–14 CONN (52)

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. MD over 100% and CONN over 100%.

#11 · Total L

Over 52.5 -120

Saturday, Sep 12 · SDSU @ UCLA · 61.0%

SDSU 10–28 UCLA (38)

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. SDSU over 100% and UCLA over 100%.

#12 · Total W

Under 56.5 -124

Saturday, Sep 12 · USU @ WASH · 59.0%

USU 14–16 WASH (30)

Total: Covers consensus 59% under 56.5. USU under 100% and WASH under 100%.

#13 · Total L

Over 56.5 -112

Saturday, Sep 12 · ULM @ UAB · 58.0%

ULM 20–26 UAB (46)

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 56.5. ULM over 100% and UAB over 100%.

#14 · Total W

Over 50.5 -111

Saturday, Sep 12 · WAKE @ PUR · 58.0%

WAKE 38–36 PUR (74)

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 50.5. WAKE over 100% and PUR over 100%.

#15 · Total L

Under 53.5 -129

Saturday, Sep 12 · DEL @ VAN · 55.0%

DEL 26–35 VAN (61)

Total: Covers consensus 55% under 53.5. DEL under 100% and VAN under 100%.

#16 · Total W

Under 41.5 -108

Saturday, Sep 12 · ISU @ IOWA · 54.0%

ISU 13–16 IOWA (29)

Total: Covers consensus 54% under 41.5. ISU under 100% and IOWA under 100%.

#17 · Total L

Over 66.5 -108

Saturday, Sep 12 · CAL @ SYR · 52.0%

CAL 21–18 SYR (39)

Total: Covers consensus 52% over 66.5. CAL over 100% and SYR over 100%.

#18 · Total L

Over 65.5 -112

Saturday, Sep 12 · UTSA @ TXST · 51.0%

UTSA 31–26 TXST (57)

Total: Covers consensus 51% over 65.5. UTSA over 100% and TXST over 100%.

#19 · Total L

Over 52.5 -123

Saturday, Sep 12 · MSST @ MINN · 51.0%

MSST 38–13 MINN (51)

Total: Covers consensus 51% over 52.5. MSST over 100% and MINN over 100%.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 Spread APP +6.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · APP @ ECU -110 — 100.0 APP 27–24 ECU W APP covers the spread 100% vs ECU 0%. Taking points (+6.5) at -110.
2 Spread USM +33.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · USM @ AUB -110 — 100.0 USM 8–43 AUB L USM covers the spread 100% vs AUB 0%. Taking points (+33.5) at -110.
3 Spread ORST +26.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · TTU @ ORST -120 — 100.0 TTU 35–24 ORST W ORST covers the spread 100% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+26.5) at -120.
4 Spread AFA +1.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · NDSU @ AFA -105 — 100.0 NDSU 38–32 AFA L AFA covers the spread 100% vs NDSU 50%. Taking points (+1.5) at -105.
5 Spread GASO +20.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · GASO @ CLEM -112 — 100.0 GASO 7–22 CLEM W GASO covers the spread 100% vs CLEM 0%. Taking points (+20.5) at -112.
6 Spread USA +9.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · USA @ TULN -105 — 100.0 USA 24–28 TULN W USA covers the spread 100% vs TULN 0%. Taking points (+9.5) at -105.
7 Total Over 52.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · WKU @ UGA -110 — 79.0 WKU 20–70 UGA (90) W Total: Covers consensus 79% over 52.5. WKU over 100% and UGA over 100%.
8 Total Over 55.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · LT @ LSU -112 — 69.0 LT 14–45 LSU (59) W Total: Covers consensus 69% over 55.5. LT over 100% and LSU over 100%.
9 Total Over 57.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · UCF @ PITT -106 — 64.0 UCF 7–12 PITT (19) L Total: Covers consensus 64% over 57.5. UCF over 100% and PITT over 100%.
10 Total Over 52.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · MD @ CONN -108 — 61.0 MD 38–14 CONN (52) L Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. MD over 100% and CONN over 100%.
11 Total Over 52.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · SDSU @ UCLA -120 — 61.0 SDSU 10–28 UCLA (38) L Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. SDSU over 100% and UCLA over 100%.
12 Total Under 56.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · USU @ WASH -124 — 59.0 USU 14–16 WASH (30) W Total: Covers consensus 59% under 56.5. USU under 100% and WASH under 100%.
13 Total Over 56.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · ULM @ UAB -112 — 58.0 ULM 20–26 UAB (46) L Total: Covers consensus 58% over 56.5. ULM over 100% and UAB over 100%.
14 Total Over 50.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · WAKE @ PUR -111 — 58.0 WAKE 38–36 PUR (74) W Total: Covers consensus 58% over 50.5. WAKE over 100% and PUR over 100%.
15 Total Under 53.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · DEL @ VAN -129 — 55.0 DEL 26–35 VAN (61) L Total: Covers consensus 55% under 53.5. DEL under 100% and VAN under 100%.
16 Total Under 41.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · ISU @ IOWA -108 — 54.0 ISU 13–16 IOWA (29) W Total: Covers consensus 54% under 41.5. ISU under 100% and IOWA under 100%.
17 Total Over 66.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · CAL @ SYR -108 — 52.0 CAL 21–18 SYR (39) L Total: Covers consensus 52% over 66.5. CAL over 100% and SYR over 100%.
18 Total Over 65.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · UTSA @ TXST -112 — 51.0 UTSA 31–26 TXST (57) L Total: Covers consensus 51% over 65.5. UTSA over 100% and TXST over 100%.
19 Total Over 52.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · MSST @ MINN -123 — 51.0 MSST 38–13 MINN (51) L Total: Covers consensus 51% over 52.5. MSST over 100% and MINN over 100%.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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