Week 3

Sep 12

All NCAAF picks for this week. Graded live from ESPN.

ML, total, and spread when signals stack — best book price.

Saturday, Sep 12

CAL @ SYR

ML L

SYR ML -180

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: SYR priced -180; TeamRankings win% 100% vs CAL 0%.

Total L

Over 66.5 -108

Best available · 52.0%

Total: Covers consensus 52% over 66.5. CAL over 100% and SYR over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

NAVY @ FAU

ML L

NAVY ML -218

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: NAVY priced -218; TeamRankings win% 100% vs FAU 0%.

Saturday, Sep 12

BGSU @ NEB

ML W

NEB ML -6500

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: NEB priced -6500; TeamRankings win% 100% vs BGSU 0%.

Saturday, Sep 12

ORE @ OKST

ML L

ORE ML -2100

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: ORE priced -2100; TeamRankings win% 100% vs OKST 0%.

Saturday, Sep 12

WSU @ KSU

ML W

KSU ML -850

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: KSU priced -850; TeamRankings win% 100% vs WSU 0%.

Saturday, Sep 12

USU @ WASH

ML W

WASH ML -4500

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: WASH priced -4500; TeamRankings win% 100% vs USU 0%.

Total W

Under 56.5 -124

Best available · 59.0%

Total: Covers consensus 59% under 56.5. USU under 100% and WASH under 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

TENN @ GT

ML W

TENN ML -450

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: TENN priced -450; TeamRankings win% 100% vs GT 0%.

Saturday, Sep 12

EMU @ MSU

ML W

MSU ML -900

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: MSU priced -900; TeamRankings win% 100% vs EMU 50%.

Saturday, Sep 12

TTU @ ORST

ML W

TTU ML -3200

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: TTU priced -3200; TeamRankings win% 100% vs ORST 0%.

Spread W

ORST +26.5 -120

Best available · 100.0%

ORST covers the spread 100% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+26.5) at -120.

Saturday, Sep 12

TLSA @ SHSU

ML W

TLSA ML -535

Best available · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: TLSA priced -535; TeamRankings win% 100% vs SHSU 0%.

Saturday, Sep 12

APP @ ECU

Spread W

APP +6.5 -110

Best available · 100.0%

APP covers the spread 100% vs ECU 0%. Taking points (+6.5) at -110.

Saturday, Sep 12

USM @ AUB

Spread L

USM +33.5 -110

Best available · 100.0%

USM covers the spread 100% vs AUB 0%. Taking points (+33.5) at -110.

Saturday, Sep 12

NDSU @ AFA

Spread L

AFA +1.5 -105

Best available · 100.0%

AFA covers the spread 100% vs NDSU 50%. Taking points (+1.5) at -105.

Saturday, Sep 12

GASO @ CLEM

Spread W

GASO +20.5 -112

Best available · 100.0%

GASO covers the spread 100% vs CLEM 0%. Taking points (+20.5) at -112.

Saturday, Sep 12

USA @ TULN

Spread W

USA +9.5 -105

Best available · 100.0%

USA covers the spread 100% vs TULN 0%. Taking points (+9.5) at -105.

Saturday, Sep 12

WKU @ UGA

Total W

Over 52.5 -110

Best available · 79.0%

Total: Covers consensus 79% over 52.5. WKU over 100% and UGA over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

LT @ LSU

Total W

Over 55.5 -112

Best available · 69.0%

Total: Covers consensus 69% over 55.5. LT over 100% and LSU over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

UCF @ PITT

Total L

Over 57.5 -106

Best available · 64.0%

Total: Covers consensus 64% over 57.5. UCF over 100% and PITT over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

MD @ CONN

Total L

Over 52.5 -108

Best available · 61.0%

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. MD over 100% and CONN over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

SDSU @ UCLA

Total L

Over 52.5 -120

Best available · 61.0%

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. SDSU over 100% and UCLA over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

ULM @ UAB

Total L

Over 56.5 -112

Best available · 58.0%

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 56.5. ULM over 100% and UAB over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

WAKE @ PUR

Total W

Over 50.5 -111

Best available · 58.0%

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 50.5. WAKE over 100% and PUR over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

DEL @ VAN

Total L

Under 53.5 -129

Best available · 55.0%

Total: Covers consensus 55% under 53.5. DEL under 100% and VAN under 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

ISU @ IOWA

Total W

Under 41.5 -108

Best available · 54.0%

Total: Covers consensus 54% under 41.5. ISU under 100% and IOWA under 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

UTSA @ TXST

Total L

Over 65.5 -112

Best available · 51.0%

Total: Covers consensus 51% over 65.5. UTSA over 100% and TXST over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

MSST @ MINN

Total L

Over 52.5 -123

Best available · 51.0%

Total: Covers consensus 51% over 52.5. MSST over 100% and MINN over 100%.

Saturday, Sep 12

UNLV @ UNT

ML L

UNLV ML -162

Best available · 50.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: UNLV priced -162; TeamRankings win% 50% vs UNT 0%.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

9–10

Week

6–4

Last 10

11–9

Last 20

0 / 13 / 6

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on run lines) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

APP @ ECU APP +6.5

USM @ AUB USM +33.5

TTU @ ORST ORST +26.5

NDSU @ AFA AFA +1.5

GASO @ CLEM GASO +20.5

USA @ TULN USA +9.5

WKU @ UGA Over 52.5

LT @ LSU Over 55.5

UCF @ PITT Over 57.5

MD @ CONN Over 52.5

SDSU @ UCLA Over 52.5

USU @ WASH Under 56.5

ULM @ UAB Over 56.5

WAKE @ PUR Over 50.5

DEL @ VAN Under 53.5

ISU @ IOWA Under 41.5

CAL @ SYR Over 66.5

UTSA @ TXST Over 65.5

MSST @ MINN Over 52.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · Spread W

APP +6.5 -110

Saturday, Sep 12 · APP @ ECU · 100.0%

APP 27–24 ECU

APP covers the spread 100% vs ECU 0%. Taking points (+6.5) at -110.

#2 · Spread L

USM +33.5 -110

Saturday, Sep 12 · USM @ AUB · 100.0%

USM 8–43 AUB

USM covers the spread 100% vs AUB 0%. Taking points (+33.5) at -110.

#3 · Spread W

ORST +26.5 -120

Saturday, Sep 12 · TTU @ ORST · 100.0%

TTU 35–24 ORST

ORST covers the spread 100% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+26.5) at -120.

#4 · Spread L

AFA +1.5 -105

Saturday, Sep 12 · NDSU @ AFA · 100.0%

NDSU 38–32 AFA

AFA covers the spread 100% vs NDSU 50%. Taking points (+1.5) at -105.

#5 · Spread W

GASO +20.5 -112

Saturday, Sep 12 · GASO @ CLEM · 100.0%

GASO 7–22 CLEM

GASO covers the spread 100% vs CLEM 0%. Taking points (+20.5) at -112.

#6 · Spread W

USA +9.5 -105

Saturday, Sep 12 · USA @ TULN · 100.0%

USA 24–28 TULN

USA covers the spread 100% vs TULN 0%. Taking points (+9.5) at -105.

#7 · Total W

Over 52.5 -110

Saturday, Sep 12 · WKU @ UGA · 79.0%

WKU 20–70 UGA (90)

Total: Covers consensus 79% over 52.5. WKU over 100% and UGA over 100%.

#8 · Total W

Over 55.5 -112

Saturday, Sep 12 · LT @ LSU · 69.0%

LT 14–45 LSU (59)

Total: Covers consensus 69% over 55.5. LT over 100% and LSU over 100%.

#9 · Total L

Over 57.5 -106

Saturday, Sep 12 · UCF @ PITT · 64.0%

UCF 7–12 PITT (19)

Total: Covers consensus 64% over 57.5. UCF over 100% and PITT over 100%.

#10 · Total L

Over 52.5 -108

Saturday, Sep 12 · MD @ CONN · 61.0%

MD 38–14 CONN (52)

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. MD over 100% and CONN over 100%.

#11 · Total L

Over 52.5 -120

Saturday, Sep 12 · SDSU @ UCLA · 61.0%

SDSU 10–28 UCLA (38)

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. SDSU over 100% and UCLA over 100%.

#12 · Total W

Under 56.5 -124

Saturday, Sep 12 · USU @ WASH · 59.0%

USU 14–16 WASH (30)

Total: Covers consensus 59% under 56.5. USU under 100% and WASH under 100%.

#13 · Total L

Over 56.5 -112

Saturday, Sep 12 · ULM @ UAB · 58.0%

ULM 20–26 UAB (46)

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 56.5. ULM over 100% and UAB over 100%.

#14 · Total W

Over 50.5 -111

Saturday, Sep 12 · WAKE @ PUR · 58.0%

WAKE 38–36 PUR (74)

Total: Covers consensus 58% over 50.5. WAKE over 100% and PUR over 100%.

#15 · Total L

Under 53.5 -129

Saturday, Sep 12 · DEL @ VAN · 55.0%

DEL 26–35 VAN (61)

Total: Covers consensus 55% under 53.5. DEL under 100% and VAN under 100%.

#16 · Total W

Under 41.5 -108

Saturday, Sep 12 · ISU @ IOWA · 54.0%

ISU 13–16 IOWA (29)

Total: Covers consensus 54% under 41.5. ISU under 100% and IOWA under 100%.

#17 · Total L

Over 66.5 -108

Saturday, Sep 12 · CAL @ SYR · 52.0%

CAL 21–18 SYR (39)

Total: Covers consensus 52% over 66.5. CAL over 100% and SYR over 100%.

#18 · Total L

Over 65.5 -112

Saturday, Sep 12 · UTSA @ TXST · 51.0%

UTSA 31–26 TXST (57)

Total: Covers consensus 51% over 65.5. UTSA over 100% and TXST over 100%.

#19 · Total L

Over 52.5 -123

Saturday, Sep 12 · MSST @ MINN · 51.0%

MSST 38–13 MINN (51)

Total: Covers consensus 51% over 52.5. MSST over 100% and MINN over 100%.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	Spread	APP +6.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · APP @ ECU	-110	—	100.0	APP 27–24 ECU	W	APP covers the spread 100% vs ECU 0%. Taking points (+6.5) at -110.
2	Spread	USM +33.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · USM @ AUB	-110	—	100.0	USM 8–43 AUB	L	USM covers the spread 100% vs AUB 0%. Taking points (+33.5) at -110.
3	Spread	ORST +26.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · TTU @ ORST	-120	—	100.0	TTU 35–24 ORST	W	ORST covers the spread 100% vs TTU 0%. Taking points (+26.5) at -120.
4	Spread	AFA +1.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · NDSU @ AFA	-105	—	100.0	NDSU 38–32 AFA	L	AFA covers the spread 100% vs NDSU 50%. Taking points (+1.5) at -105.
5	Spread	GASO +20.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · GASO @ CLEM	-112	—	100.0	GASO 7–22 CLEM	W	GASO covers the spread 100% vs CLEM 0%. Taking points (+20.5) at -112.
6	Spread	USA +9.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · USA @ TULN	-105	—	100.0	USA 24–28 TULN	W	USA covers the spread 100% vs TULN 0%. Taking points (+9.5) at -105.
7	Total	Over 52.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · WKU @ UGA	-110	—	79.0	WKU 20–70 UGA (90)	W	Total: Covers consensus 79% over 52.5. WKU over 100% and UGA over 100%.
8	Total	Over 55.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · LT @ LSU	-112	—	69.0	LT 14–45 LSU (59)	W	Total: Covers consensus 69% over 55.5. LT over 100% and LSU over 100%.
9	Total	Over 57.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · UCF @ PITT	-106	—	64.0	UCF 7–12 PITT (19)	L	Total: Covers consensus 64% over 57.5. UCF over 100% and PITT over 100%.
10	Total	Over 52.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · MD @ CONN	-108	—	61.0	MD 38–14 CONN (52)	L	Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. MD over 100% and CONN over 100%.
11	Total	Over 52.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · SDSU @ UCLA	-120	—	61.0	SDSU 10–28 UCLA (38)	L	Total: Covers consensus 61% over 52.5. SDSU over 100% and UCLA over 100%.
12	Total	Under 56.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · USU @ WASH	-124	—	59.0	USU 14–16 WASH (30)	W	Total: Covers consensus 59% under 56.5. USU under 100% and WASH under 100%.
13	Total	Over 56.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · ULM @ UAB	-112	—	58.0	ULM 20–26 UAB (46)	L	Total: Covers consensus 58% over 56.5. ULM over 100% and UAB over 100%.
14	Total	Over 50.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · WAKE @ PUR	-111	—	58.0	WAKE 38–36 PUR (74)	W	Total: Covers consensus 58% over 50.5. WAKE over 100% and PUR over 100%.
15	Total	Under 53.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · DEL @ VAN	-129	—	55.0	DEL 26–35 VAN (61)	L	Total: Covers consensus 55% under 53.5. DEL under 100% and VAN under 100%.
16	Total	Under 41.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · ISU @ IOWA	-108	—	54.0	ISU 13–16 IOWA (29)	W	Total: Covers consensus 54% under 41.5. ISU under 100% and IOWA under 100%.
17	Total	Over 66.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · CAL @ SYR	-108	—	52.0	CAL 21–18 SYR (39)	L	Total: Covers consensus 52% over 66.5. CAL over 100% and SYR over 100%.
18	Total	Over 65.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · UTSA @ TXST	-112	—	51.0	UTSA 31–26 TXST (57)	L	Total: Covers consensus 51% over 65.5. UTSA over 100% and TXST over 100%.
19	Total	Over 52.5 Saturday, Sep 12 · MSST @ MINN	-123	—	51.0	MSST 38–13 MINN (51)	L	Total: Covers consensus 51% over 52.5. MSST over 100% and MINN over 100%.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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