Sunday, Oct 11

Priced Oct 11, 2026, 4:00 AM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 6–6

Every game stays on the slate. ML, total, and spread when signals stack — best book price. Otherwise the market stays blank.

Final

PHI @ JAX

PHI

JAX

ML W

JAX ML -400

FanDuel · 75.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: JAX best -400 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 75% vs PHI 50%.

Spread L

JAX -8.5 -105

DraftKings · 75.0%

JAX covers the spread 75% vs PHI 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Final

CHI @ GB

CHI

ML L

CHI ML -122

DraftKings · 75.0%

ML: CHI best -122 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 75% vs GB 50%.

Spread L

CHI -1.5 -110

DraftKings · 75.0%

CHI covers the spread 75% vs GB 25%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Final

CIN @ MIA

CIN

MIA

ML W

CIN ML -340

FanDuel · 50.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: CIN best -340 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 50% vs MIA 0%.

Spread W

CIN -6.5 -128

FanDuel · 50.0%

CIN covers the spread 50% vs MIA 25%. Laying points (-6.5); best -128 at FanDuel.

Total points

No pick

Final

CLE @ NYJ

CLE

NYJ

No pick

Spread L

CLE +2.5 -110

DraftKings · 75.0%

CLE covers the spread 75% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+2.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Final

MIN @ NO

MIN

ML W

MIN ML -130

DraftKings · 100.0%

ML: MIN best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 25%.

Spread W

MIN -2.5 -105

DraftKings · 75.0%

MIN covers the spread 75% vs NO 50%. Laying points (-2.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Final/OT

NYG @ WSH

NYG

WSH

No pick

Spread W

NYG +3.5 -108

DraftKings · 75.0%

NYG covers the spread 75% vs WSH 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -108 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Final

DEN @ LAC

DEN

LAC

ML W

DEN ML -185

DraftKings · 50.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: DEN best -185 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 50% vs LAC 0%.

Spread

No pick

Total points W

Under 42.5 -115

FanDuel · 51.0%

Total: Covers consensus 51% under 42.5. DEN under 75% and LAC under 75%. Best -115 at FanDuel.

Final

DET @ ARI

DET

ARI

ML W

DET ML -245

FanDuel · 50.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: DET best -245 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 50% vs ARI 25%.

Spread L

ARI +5.5 -110

Hard Rock Bet · 50.0%

ARI covers the spread 50% vs DET 0%. Taking points (+5.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

Total points

No pick

Final

SF @ SEA

SEA

No pick

Spread W

SF +3.5 -120

Hard Rock Bet · 75.0%

SF covers the spread 75% vs SEA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at Hard Rock Bet.

Total points

No pick

Final/OT

BAL @ ATL

BAL

ATL

No pick

Spread L

ATL -3.5 +100

FanDuel · 50.0%

ATL covers the spread 50% vs BAL 25%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.

Total points

No pick

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

6–6

Day

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

2 / 1 / 9

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

MIN @ NO MIN ML

NYG @ WSH NYG +3.5

SF @ SEA SF +3.5

CHI @ GB CHI ML

CHI @ GB CHI -1.5

MIN @ NO MIN -2.5

CLE @ NYJ CLE +2.5

PHI @ JAX JAX -8.5

DEN @ LAC Under 42.5

CIN @ MIA CIN -6.5

BAL @ ATL ATL -3.5

DET @ ARI ARI +5.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · ML W

MIN ML -130 · DraftKings

MIN @ NO · 100.0%

MIN 23–13 NO

ML: MIN best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 25%.

#2 · Spread W

NYG +3.5 -108 · DraftKings

NYG @ WSH · 75.0%

NYG 27–27 WSH

NYG covers the spread 75% vs WSH 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -108 at DraftKings.

#3 · Spread W

SF +3.5 -120 · Hard Rock Bet

SF @ SEA · 75.0%

SF 32–29 SEA

SF covers the spread 75% vs SEA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at Hard Rock Bet.

#4 · ML L

CHI ML -122 · DraftKings

CHI @ GB · 75.0%

CHI 7–31 GB

ML: CHI best -122 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 75% vs GB 50%.

#5 · Spread L

CHI -1.5 -110 · DraftKings

CHI @ GB · 75.0%

CHI 7–31 GB

CHI covers the spread 75% vs GB 25%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#6 · Spread W

MIN -2.5 -105 · DraftKings

MIN @ NO · 75.0%

MIN 23–13 NO

MIN covers the spread 75% vs NO 50%. Laying points (-2.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#7 · Spread L

CLE +2.5 -110 · DraftKings

CLE @ NYJ · 75.0%

CLE 12–17 NYJ

CLE covers the spread 75% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+2.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#8 · Spread L

JAX -8.5 -105 · DraftKings

PHI @ JAX · 75.0%

PHI 17–19 JAX

JAX covers the spread 75% vs PHI 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#9 · Total points W

Under 42.5 -115 · FanDuel

DEN @ LAC · 51.0%

DEN 23–17 LAC (40)

Total: Covers consensus 51% under 42.5. DEN under 75% and LAC under 75%. Best -115 at FanDuel.

#10 · Spread W

CIN -6.5 -128 · FanDuel

CIN @ MIA · 50.0%

CIN 31–24 MIA

CIN covers the spread 50% vs MIA 25%. Laying points (-6.5); best -128 at FanDuel.

#11 · Spread L

ATL -3.5 +100 · FanDuel

BAL @ ATL · 50.0%

BAL 30–23 ATL

ATL covers the spread 50% vs BAL 25%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.

#12 · Spread L

ARI +5.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

DET @ ARI · 50.0%

DET 45–21 ARI

ARI covers the spread 50% vs DET 0%. Taking points (+5.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	ML	MIN ML MIN @ NO	-130	DraftKings	100.0	MIN 23–13 NO	W	ML: MIN best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 25%.
2	Spread	NYG +3.5 NYG @ WSH	-108	DraftKings	75.0	NYG 27–27 WSH	W	NYG covers the spread 75% vs WSH 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -108 at DraftKings.
3	Spread	SF +3.5 SF @ SEA	-120	Hard Rock Bet	75.0	SF 32–29 SEA	W	SF covers the spread 75% vs SEA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at Hard Rock Bet.
4	ML	CHI ML CHI @ GB	-122	DraftKings	75.0	CHI 7–31 GB	L	ML: CHI best -122 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 75% vs GB 50%.
5	Spread	CHI -1.5 CHI @ GB	-110	DraftKings	75.0	CHI 7–31 GB	L	CHI covers the spread 75% vs GB 25%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
6	Spread	MIN -2.5 MIN @ NO	-105	DraftKings	75.0	MIN 23–13 NO	W	MIN covers the spread 75% vs NO 50%. Laying points (-2.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
7	Spread	CLE +2.5 CLE @ NYJ	-110	DraftKings	75.0	CLE 12–17 NYJ	L	CLE covers the spread 75% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+2.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
8	Spread	JAX -8.5 PHI @ JAX	-105	DraftKings	75.0	PHI 17–19 JAX	L	JAX covers the spread 75% vs PHI 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
9	Total points	Under 42.5 DEN @ LAC	-115	FanDuel	51.0	DEN 23–17 LAC (40)	W	Total: Covers consensus 51% under 42.5. DEN under 75% and LAC under 75%. Best -115 at FanDuel.
10	Spread	CIN -6.5 CIN @ MIA	-128	FanDuel	50.0	CIN 31–24 MIA	W	CIN covers the spread 50% vs MIA 25%. Laying points (-6.5); best -128 at FanDuel.
11	Spread	ATL -3.5 BAL @ ATL	+100	FanDuel	50.0	BAL 30–23 ATL	L	ATL covers the spread 50% vs BAL 25%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.
12	Spread	ARI +5.5 DET @ ARI	-110	Hard Rock Bet	50.0	DET 45–21 ARI	L	ARI covers the spread 50% vs DET 0%. Taking points (+5.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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