← NFL picks
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Week 5
Sunday, Oct 11
Priced Oct 11, 2026, 4:00 AM ET. Graded live from ESPN.
Overnight recap: 6–6
Every game stays on the slate. ML, total, and spread when signals stack — best book price. Otherwise the market stays blank.
ML
W
JAX ML
-400
FanDuel
· 75.0%
· lean only (past -160)
ML: JAX best -400 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 75% vs PHI 50%.
Spread
L
JAX -8.5
-105
DraftKings
· 75.0%
JAX covers the spread 75% vs PHI 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
Total points
No pick
ML
L
CHI ML
-122
DraftKings
· 75.0%
ML: CHI best -122 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 75% vs GB 50%.
Spread
L
CHI -1.5
-110
DraftKings
· 75.0%
CHI covers the spread 75% vs GB 25%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
Total points
No pick
ML
W
CIN ML
-340
FanDuel
· 50.0%
· lean only (past -160)
ML: CIN best -340 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 50% vs MIA 0%.
Spread
W
CIN -6.5
-128
FanDuel
· 50.0%
CIN covers the spread 50% vs MIA 25%. Laying points (-6.5); best -128 at FanDuel.
Total points
No pick
ML
No pick
Spread
L
CLE +2.5
-110
DraftKings
· 75.0%
CLE covers the spread 75% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+2.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
Total points
No pick
ML
W
MIN ML
-130
DraftKings
· 100.0%
ML: MIN best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 25%.
Spread
W
MIN -2.5
-105
DraftKings
· 75.0%
MIN covers the spread 75% vs NO 50%. Laying points (-2.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
Total points
No pick
ML
No pick
Spread
W
NYG +3.5
-108
DraftKings
· 75.0%
NYG covers the spread 75% vs WSH 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -108 at DraftKings.
Total points
No pick
ML
W
DEN ML
-185
DraftKings
· 50.0%
· lean only (past -160)
ML: DEN best -185 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 50% vs LAC 0%.
Spread
No pick
Total points
W
Under 42.5
-115
FanDuel
· 51.0%
Total: Covers consensus 51% under 42.5. DEN under 75% and LAC under 75%. Best -115 at FanDuel.
ML
W
DET ML
-245
FanDuel
· 50.0%
· lean only (past -160)
ML: DET best -245 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 50% vs ARI 25%.
Spread
L
ARI +5.5
-110
Hard Rock Bet
· 50.0%
ARI covers the spread 50% vs DET 0%. Taking points (+5.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
Total points
No pick
ML
No pick
Spread
W
SF +3.5
-120
Hard Rock Bet
· 75.0%
SF covers the spread 75% vs SEA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at Hard Rock Bet.
Total points
No pick
ML
No pick
Spread
L
ATL -3.5
+100
FanDuel
· 50.0%
ATL covers the spread 50% vs BAL 25%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.
Total points
No pick
No picks for this day.
Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).
2 / 1 / 9
ML / totals / spreads
Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started
Model probability vs market break-even
Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads)
Market break-even
Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
MIN @ NO MIN ML
NYG @ WSH NYG +3.5
SF @ SEA SF +3.5
CHI @ GB CHI ML
CHI @ GB CHI -1.5
MIN @ NO MIN -2.5
CLE @ NYJ CLE +2.5
PHI @ JAX JAX -8.5
DEN @ LAC Under 42.5
CIN @ MIA CIN -6.5
BAL @ ATL ATL -3.5
DET @ ARI ARI +5.5
#1 · ML
W
MIN ML -130 · DraftKings
MIN @ NO
· 100.0%
MIN 23–13 NO
ML: MIN best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 25%.
#2 · Spread
W
NYG +3.5 -108 · DraftKings
NYG @ WSH
· 75.0%
NYG 27–27 WSH
NYG covers the spread 75% vs WSH 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -108 at DraftKings.
#3 · Spread
W
SF +3.5 -120 · Hard Rock Bet
SF @ SEA
· 75.0%
SF 32–29 SEA
SF covers the spread 75% vs SEA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at Hard Rock Bet.
#4 · ML
L
CHI ML -122 · DraftKings
CHI @ GB
· 75.0%
CHI 7–31 GB
ML: CHI best -122 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 75% vs GB 50%.
#5 · Spread
L
CHI -1.5 -110 · DraftKings
CHI @ GB
· 75.0%
CHI 7–31 GB
CHI covers the spread 75% vs GB 25%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
#6 · Spread
W
MIN -2.5 -105 · DraftKings
MIN @ NO
· 75.0%
MIN 23–13 NO
MIN covers the spread 75% vs NO 50%. Laying points (-2.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
#7 · Spread
L
CLE +2.5 -110 · DraftKings
CLE @ NYJ
· 75.0%
CLE 12–17 NYJ
CLE covers the spread 75% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+2.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
#8 · Spread
L
JAX -8.5 -105 · DraftKings
PHI @ JAX
· 75.0%
PHI 17–19 JAX
JAX covers the spread 75% vs PHI 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
#9 · Total points
W
Under 42.5 -115 · FanDuel
DEN @ LAC
· 51.0%
DEN 23–17 LAC (40)
Total: Covers consensus 51% under 42.5. DEN under 75% and LAC under 75%. Best -115 at FanDuel.
#10 · Spread
W
CIN -6.5 -128 · FanDuel
CIN @ MIA
· 50.0%
CIN 31–24 MIA
CIN covers the spread 50% vs MIA 25%. Laying points (-6.5); best -128 at FanDuel.
#11 · Spread
L
ATL -3.5 +100 · FanDuel
BAL @ ATL
· 50.0%
BAL 30–23 ATL
ATL covers the spread 50% vs BAL 25%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.
#12 · Spread
L
ARI +5.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet
DET @ ARI
· 50.0%
DET 45–21 ARI
ARI covers the spread 50% vs DET 0%. Taking points (+5.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
| # |
Type |
Bet |
Odds |
Book |
Cons. % |
Score |
Result |
Why |
| 1 |
ML |
MIN ML
MIN @ NO
|
-130 |
DraftKings |
100.0 |
MIN 23–13 NO |
W
|
ML: MIN best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 25%. |
| 2 |
Spread |
NYG +3.5
NYG @ WSH
|
-108 |
DraftKings |
75.0 |
NYG 27–27 WSH |
W
|
NYG covers the spread 75% vs WSH 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -108 at DraftKings. |
| 3 |
Spread |
SF +3.5
SF @ SEA
|
-120 |
Hard Rock Bet |
75.0 |
SF 32–29 SEA |
W
|
SF covers the spread 75% vs SEA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at Hard Rock Bet. |
| 4 |
ML |
CHI ML
CHI @ GB
|
-122 |
DraftKings |
75.0 |
CHI 7–31 GB |
L
|
ML: CHI best -122 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 75% vs GB 50%. |
| 5 |
Spread |
CHI -1.5
CHI @ GB
|
-110 |
DraftKings |
75.0 |
CHI 7–31 GB |
L
|
CHI covers the spread 75% vs GB 25%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings. |
| 6 |
Spread |
MIN -2.5
MIN @ NO
|
-105 |
DraftKings |
75.0 |
MIN 23–13 NO |
W
|
MIN covers the spread 75% vs NO 50%. Laying points (-2.5); best -105 at DraftKings. |
| 7 |
Spread |
CLE +2.5
CLE @ NYJ
|
-110 |
DraftKings |
75.0 |
CLE 12–17 NYJ |
L
|
CLE covers the spread 75% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+2.5); best -110 at DraftKings. |
| 8 |
Spread |
JAX -8.5
PHI @ JAX
|
-105 |
DraftKings |
75.0 |
PHI 17–19 JAX |
L
|
JAX covers the spread 75% vs PHI 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at DraftKings. |
| 9 |
Total points |
Under 42.5
DEN @ LAC
|
-115 |
FanDuel |
51.0 |
DEN 23–17 LAC (40) |
W
|
Total: Covers consensus 51% under 42.5. DEN under 75% and LAC under 75%. Best -115 at FanDuel. |
| 10 |
Spread |
CIN -6.5
CIN @ MIA
|
-128 |
FanDuel |
50.0 |
CIN 31–24 MIA |
W
|
CIN covers the spread 50% vs MIA 25%. Laying points (-6.5); best -128 at FanDuel. |
| 11 |
Spread |
ATL -3.5
BAL @ ATL
|
+100 |
FanDuel |
50.0 |
BAL 30–23 ATL |
L
|
ATL covers the spread 50% vs BAL 25%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel. |
| 12 |
Spread |
ARI +5.5
DET @ ARI
|
-110 |
Hard Rock Bet |
50.0 |
DET 45–21 ARI |
L
|
ARI covers the spread 50% vs DET 0%. Taking points (+5.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet. |
No picks match this filter.
Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.
Odds and consensus from Covers.com.
ATS from TeamRankings.
Finals from ESPN.
Not affiliated with those sites.
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