← NFL picks · Week 7

Sunday, Oct 25

Priced Oct 25, 2026, 4:00 AM ET. Graded live from ESPN.

Overnight recap: 6–10

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

6–10

Day

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

4 / 2 / 10

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
SF @ ATL SF ML
LA @ LV LV +3.5
MIA @ NYJ NYJ -4.5
IND @ MIN MIN -6.5
MIA @ NYJ Under 39.5
CLE @ TEN CLE ML
CLE @ TEN CLE -1.5
NYG @ HOU NYG +10.5
SF @ ATL SF -2.5
PIT @ NO PIT ML
DEN @ ARI DEN -4.5
PIT @ NO Over 43.5
TB @ CAR CAR ML
TB @ CAR CAR -2.5
KC @ SEA KC +2.5
CIN @ BAL CIN -2.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · ML L

SF ML -142 · DraftKings

SF @ ATL · 100.0%

SF 20–29 ATL

ML: SF best -142 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs ATL 33.3%.

#2 · Spread L

LV +3.5 -120 · FanDuel

LA @ LV · 83.3%

LAR 35–21 LV

LV covers the spread 83.3% vs LA 33.3%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

#3 · Spread L

NYJ -4.5 -110 · DraftKings

MIA @ NYJ · 80.0%

MIA 28–25 NYJ

NYJ covers the spread 80% vs MIA 40%. Laying points (-4.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#4 · Spread L

MIN -6.5 -115 · DraftKings

IND @ MIN · 80.0%

IND 10–16 MIN

MIN covers the spread 80% vs IND 50%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#5 · Total points L

Under 39.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

MIA @ NYJ · 67.0%

MIA 28–25 NYJ (53)

Total: Covers consensus 67% under 39.5. MIA under 60% and NYJ under 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

#6 · ML W

CLE ML -130 · DraftKings

CLE @ TEN · 66.7%

CLE 27–24 TEN

ML: CLE best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs TEN 16.7%.

#7 · Spread W

CLE -1.5 -110 · DraftKings

CLE @ TEN · 66.7%

CLE 27–24 TEN

CLE covers the spread 66.7% vs TEN 50%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#8 · Spread W

NYG +10.5 -112 · DraftKings

NYG @ HOU · 66.7%

NYG 27–21 HOU

NYG covers the spread 66.7% vs HOU 33.3%. Taking points (+10.5); best -112 at DraftKings.

#9 · Spread L

SF -2.5 -115 · DraftKings

SF @ ATL · 66.7%

SF 20–29 ATL

SF covers the spread 66.7% vs ATL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#10 · ML W

PIT ML -158 · FanDuel

PIT @ NO · 66.7%

PIT 16–10 NO

ML: PIT best -158 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs NO 33.3%.

#11 · Spread W

DEN -4.5 -108 · FanDuel

DEN @ ARI · 66.7%

DEN 30–16 ARI

DEN covers the spread 66.7% vs ARI 50%. Laying points (-4.5); best -108 at FanDuel.

#12 · Total points L

Over 43.5 -105 · DraftKings

PIT @ NO · 61.0%

PIT 16–10 NO (26)

Total: Covers consensus 61% over 43.5. PIT over 66.7% and NO over 66.7%. Best -105 at DraftKings.

#13 · ML L

CAR ML -155 · DraftKings

TB @ CAR · 60.0%

TB 43–13 CAR

ML: CAR best -155 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 60% vs TB 16.7%.

#14 · Spread L

CAR -2.5 -122 · FanDuel

TB @ CAR · 60.0%

TB 43–13 CAR

CAR covers the spread 60% vs TB 16.7%. Laying points (-2.5); best -122 at FanDuel.

#15 · Spread L

KC +2.5 +100 · FanDuel

KC @ SEA · 60.0%

KC 3–20 SEA

KC covers the spread 60% vs SEA 25%. Taking points (+2.5); best +100 at FanDuel.

#16 · Spread W

CIN -2.5 -120 · FanDuel

CIN @ BAL · 40.0%

CIN 35–13 BAL

CIN covers the spread 40% vs BAL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 ML SF ML SF @ ATL -142 DraftKings 100.0 SF 20–29 ATL L ML: SF best -142 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs ATL 33.3%.
2 Spread LV +3.5 LA @ LV -120 FanDuel 83.3 LAR 35–21 LV L LV covers the spread 83.3% vs LA 33.3%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at FanDuel.
3 Spread NYJ -4.5 MIA @ NYJ -110 DraftKings 80.0 MIA 28–25 NYJ L NYJ covers the spread 80% vs MIA 40%. Laying points (-4.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
4 Spread MIN -6.5 IND @ MIN -115 DraftKings 80.0 IND 10–16 MIN L MIN covers the spread 80% vs IND 50%. Laying points (-6.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
5 Total points Under 39.5 MIA @ NYJ -110 Hard Rock Bet 67.0 MIA 28–25 NYJ (53) L Total: Covers consensus 67% under 39.5. MIA under 60% and NYJ under 66.7%. Best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.
6 ML CLE ML CLE @ TEN -130 DraftKings 66.7 CLE 27–24 TEN W ML: CLE best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs TEN 16.7%.
7 Spread CLE -1.5 CLE @ TEN -110 DraftKings 66.7 CLE 27–24 TEN W CLE covers the spread 66.7% vs TEN 50%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
8 Spread NYG +10.5 NYG @ HOU -112 DraftKings 66.7 NYG 27–21 HOU W NYG covers the spread 66.7% vs HOU 33.3%. Taking points (+10.5); best -112 at DraftKings.
9 Spread SF -2.5 SF @ ATL -115 DraftKings 66.7 SF 20–29 ATL L SF covers the spread 66.7% vs ATL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
10 ML PIT ML PIT @ NO -158 FanDuel 66.7 PIT 16–10 NO W ML: PIT best -158 (FanDuel); TeamRankings win% 66.7% vs NO 33.3%.
11 Spread DEN -4.5 DEN @ ARI -108 FanDuel 66.7 DEN 30–16 ARI W DEN covers the spread 66.7% vs ARI 50%. Laying points (-4.5); best -108 at FanDuel.
12 Total points Over 43.5 PIT @ NO -105 DraftKings 61.0 PIT 16–10 NO (26) L Total: Covers consensus 61% over 43.5. PIT over 66.7% and NO over 66.7%. Best -105 at DraftKings.
13 ML CAR ML TB @ CAR -155 DraftKings 60.0 TB 43–13 CAR L ML: CAR best -155 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 60% vs TB 16.7%.
14 Spread CAR -2.5 TB @ CAR -122 FanDuel 60.0 TB 43–13 CAR L CAR covers the spread 60% vs TB 16.7%. Laying points (-2.5); best -122 at FanDuel.
15 Spread KC +2.5 KC @ SEA +100 FanDuel 60.0 KC 3–20 SEA L KC covers the spread 60% vs SEA 25%. Taking points (+2.5); best +100 at FanDuel.
16 Spread CIN -2.5 CIN @ BAL -120 FanDuel 40.0 CIN 35–13 BAL W CIN covers the spread 40% vs BAL 33.3%. Laying points (-2.5); best -120 at FanDuel.

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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