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Week 5

Oct 8 – Oct 12

All NFL picks for this week. Graded live from ESPN.

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

7–7

Week

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

2 / 1 / 11

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)
MIN @ NO MIN ML
TB @ DAL DAL -8.5
NYG @ WSH NYG +3.5
SF @ SEA SF +3.5
CHI @ GB CHI ML
CHI @ GB CHI -1.5
MIN @ NO MIN -2.5
CLE @ NYJ CLE +2.5
PHI @ JAX JAX -8.5
BUF @ LA BUF +3.5
DEN @ LAC Under 42.5
CIN @ MIA CIN -6.5
BAL @ ATL ATL -3.5
DET @ ARI ARI +5.5
−110
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
#1 · ML W

MIN ML -130 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 11 · MIN @ NO · 100.0%

MIN 23–13 NO

ML: MIN best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 25%.

#2 · Spread L

DAL -8.5 -105 · FanDuel

Thursday, Oct 8 · TB @ DAL · 75.0%

TB 24–16 DAL

DAL covers the spread 75% vs TB 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at FanDuel.

#3 · Spread W

NYG +3.5 -108 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 11 · NYG @ WSH · 75.0%

NYG 27–27 WSH

NYG covers the spread 75% vs WSH 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -108 at DraftKings.

#4 · Spread W

SF +3.5 -120 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Oct 11 · SF @ SEA · 75.0%

SF 32–29 SEA

SF covers the spread 75% vs SEA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at Hard Rock Bet.

#5 · ML L

CHI ML -122 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 11 · CHI @ GB · 75.0%

CHI 7–31 GB

ML: CHI best -122 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 75% vs GB 50%.

#6 · Spread L

CHI -1.5 -110 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 11 · CHI @ GB · 75.0%

CHI 7–31 GB

CHI covers the spread 75% vs GB 25%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#7 · Spread W

MIN -2.5 -105 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 11 · MIN @ NO · 75.0%

MIN 23–13 NO

MIN covers the spread 75% vs NO 50%. Laying points (-2.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#8 · Spread L

CLE +2.5 -110 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 11 · CLE @ NYJ · 75.0%

CLE 12–17 NYJ

CLE covers the spread 75% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+2.5); best -110 at DraftKings.

#9 · Spread L

JAX -8.5 -105 · DraftKings

Sunday, Oct 11 · PHI @ JAX · 75.0%

PHI 17–19 JAX

JAX covers the spread 75% vs PHI 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#10 · Spread W

BUF +3.5 -115 · FanDuel

Monday, Oct 12 · BUF @ LA · 75.0%

BUF 37–34 LAR

BUF covers the spread 75% vs LA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -115 at FanDuel.

#11 · Total points W

Under 42.5 -115 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 11 · DEN @ LAC · 51.0%

DEN 23–17 LAC (40)

Total: Covers consensus 51% under 42.5. DEN under 75% and LAC under 75%. Best -115 at FanDuel.

#12 · Spread W

CIN -6.5 -128 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 11 · CIN @ MIA · 50.0%

CIN 31–24 MIA

CIN covers the spread 50% vs MIA 25%. Laying points (-6.5); best -128 at FanDuel.

#13 · Spread L

ATL -3.5 +100 · FanDuel

Sunday, Oct 11 · BAL @ ATL · 50.0%

BAL 30–23 ATL

ATL covers the spread 50% vs BAL 25%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.

#14 · Spread L

ARI +5.5 -110 · Hard Rock Bet

Sunday, Oct 11 · DET @ ARI · 50.0%

DET 45–21 ARI

ARI covers the spread 50% vs DET 0%. Taking points (+5.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

# Type Bet Odds Book Cons. % Score Result Why
1 ML MIN ML Sunday, Oct 11 · MIN @ NO -130 DraftKings 100.0 MIN 23–13 NO W ML: MIN best -130 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 25%.
2 Spread DAL -8.5 Thursday, Oct 8 · TB @ DAL -105 FanDuel 75.0 TB 24–16 DAL L DAL covers the spread 75% vs TB 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at FanDuel.
3 Spread NYG +3.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · NYG @ WSH -108 DraftKings 75.0 NYG 27–27 WSH W NYG covers the spread 75% vs WSH 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -108 at DraftKings.
4 Spread SF +3.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · SF @ SEA -120 Hard Rock Bet 75.0 SF 32–29 SEA W SF covers the spread 75% vs SEA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -120 at Hard Rock Bet.
5 ML CHI ML Sunday, Oct 11 · CHI @ GB -122 DraftKings 75.0 CHI 7–31 GB L ML: CHI best -122 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 75% vs GB 50%.
6 Spread CHI -1.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · CHI @ GB -110 DraftKings 75.0 CHI 7–31 GB L CHI covers the spread 75% vs GB 25%. Laying points (-1.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
7 Spread MIN -2.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · MIN @ NO -105 DraftKings 75.0 MIN 23–13 NO W MIN covers the spread 75% vs NO 50%. Laying points (-2.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
8 Spread CLE +2.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · CLE @ NYJ -110 DraftKings 75.0 CLE 12–17 NYJ L CLE covers the spread 75% vs NYJ 66.7%. Taking points (+2.5); best -110 at DraftKings.
9 Spread JAX -8.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · PHI @ JAX -105 DraftKings 75.0 PHI 17–19 JAX L JAX covers the spread 75% vs PHI 0%. Laying points (-8.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
10 Spread BUF +3.5 Monday, Oct 12 · BUF @ LA -115 FanDuel 75.0 BUF 37–34 LAR W BUF covers the spread 75% vs LA 50%. Taking points (+3.5); best -115 at FanDuel.
11 Total points Under 42.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · DEN @ LAC -115 FanDuel 51.0 DEN 23–17 LAC (40) W Total: Covers consensus 51% under 42.5. DEN under 75% and LAC under 75%. Best -115 at FanDuel.
12 Spread CIN -6.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · CIN @ MIA -128 FanDuel 50.0 CIN 31–24 MIA W CIN covers the spread 50% vs MIA 25%. Laying points (-6.5); best -128 at FanDuel.
13 Spread ATL -3.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · BAL @ ATL +100 FanDuel 50.0 BAL 30–23 ATL L ATL covers the spread 50% vs BAL 25%. Laying points (-3.5); best +100 at FanDuel.
14 Spread ARI +5.5 Sunday, Oct 11 · DET @ ARI -110 Hard Rock Bet 50.0 DET 45–21 ARI L ARI covers the spread 50% vs DET 0%. Taking points (+5.5); best -110 at Hard Rock Bet.

Days: Thursday, Oct 8 · Sunday, Oct 11 · Monday, Oct 12

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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