Week 2

Sep 17 – Sep 21

All NFL picks for this week. Graded live from ESPN.

Every game stays on the slate. ML, total, and spread when signals stack — best book price. Otherwise the market stays blank.

Thursday, Sep 17

Final

DET @ BUF

DET

BUF

No pick

Spread W

BUF -4.5 -112

DraftKings · 100.0%

BUF covers the spread 100% vs DET 0%. Laying points (-4.5); best -112 at DraftKings.

Total points W

Over 53.5 -120

DraftKings · 70.0%

Total: Covers consensus 70% over 53.5. DET over 100% and BUF over 100%. Best -120 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

CIN @ HOU

CIN

HOU

No pick

Spread

No pick

Total points L

Over 46.5 -108

DraftKings · 59.0%

Total: Covers consensus 59% over 46.5. CIN over 100% and HOU over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

CLE @ TB

CLE

No pick

Spread

No pick

Total points W

Over 40.5 -115

DraftKings · 59.0%

Total: Covers consensus 59% over 40.5. CLE over 100% and TB over 100%. Best -115 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

MIN @ CHI

MIN

CHI

No pick

Spread

No pick

Total points L

Over 48.5 -118

DraftKings · 73.0%

Total: Covers consensus 73% over 48.5. MIN over 100% and CHI over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

NO @ BAL

BAL

ML L

BAL ML -380

DraftKings · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: BAL best -380 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs NO 0%.

Spread

No pick

Total points L

Over 46.5 -118

DraftKings · 67.0%

Total: Covers consensus 67% over 46.5. NO over 100% and BAL over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

PHI @ TEN

PHI

TEN

ML W

PHI ML -310

DraftKings · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: PHI best -310 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs TEN 0%.

Spread

No pick

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

PIT @ NE

PIT

No pick

Spread

No pick

Total points W

Under 41.5 -108

DraftKings · 59.0%

Total: Covers consensus 59% under 41.5. PIT under 100% and NE under 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

LV @ LAC

LAC

No pick

Spread W

LV +6.5 -105

DraftKings · 100.0%

LV covers the spread 100% vs LAC 0%. Taking points (+6.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

MIA @ SF

MIA

ML W

SF ML -950

DraftKings · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: SF best -950 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs MIA 0%.

Spread W

SF -13.5 -105

DraftKings · 100.0%

SF covers the spread 100% vs MIA 0%. Laying points (-13.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

Total points L

Under 45.5 -112

DraftKings · 54.0%

Total: Covers consensus 54% under 45.5. MIA under 100% and SF under 100%. Best -112 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

SEA @ ARI

SEA

ARI

No pick

Spread L

ARI +4.5 -115

DraftKings · 100.0%

ARI covers the spread 100% vs SEA 0%. Taking points (+4.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

Total points W

Under 41.5 -110

DraftKings · 51.0%

Total: Covers consensus 51% under 41.5. SEA under 100% and ARI under 100%. Best -110 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final

WSH @ DAL

WSH

DAL

No pick

Spread

No pick

Total points W

Over 50.5 -108

DraftKings · 56.0%

Total: Covers consensus 56% over 50.5. WSH over 100% and DAL over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

Sunday, Sep 20

Final/OT

IND @ KC

IND

ML W

KC ML -305

DraftKings · 100.0% · lean only (past -160)

ML: KC best -305 (DraftKings); TeamRankings win% 100% vs IND 0%.

Spread

No pick

Total points

No pick

Monday, Sep 21

Final

NYG @ LA

NYG

No pick

Spread L

NYG +7 -105

DraftKings · 100.0%

NYG covers the spread 100% vs LA 0%. Taking points (+7); best -105 at DraftKings.

Total points

No pick

Actionable leans priced -160 or better (best book).

8–6

Week

4–6

Last 10

9–11

Last 20

0 / 9 / 5

ML / totals / spreads

Green wins · red losses · amber live/push · gray not started

Model probability vs market break-even

Model (Covers consensus · ATS on spreads) Market break-even Typical −110 break-even (52.4%)

DET @ BUF BUF -4.5

MIA @ SF SF -13.5

SEA @ ARI ARI +4.5

LV @ LAC LV +6.5

NYG @ LA NYG +7

MIN @ CHI Over 48.5

DET @ BUF Over 53.5

NO @ BAL Over 46.5

CLE @ TB Over 40.5

CIN @ HOU Over 46.5

PIT @ NE Under 41.5

WSH @ DAL Over 50.5

MIA @ SF Under 45.5

SEA @ ARI Under 41.5

−110

40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

#1 · Spread W

BUF -4.5 -112 · DraftKings

Thursday, Sep 17 · DET @ BUF · 100.0%

DET 31–41 BUF

BUF covers the spread 100% vs DET 0%. Laying points (-4.5); best -112 at DraftKings.

#2 · Spread W

SF -13.5 -105 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · MIA @ SF · 100.0%

MIA 13–35 SF

SF covers the spread 100% vs MIA 0%. Laying points (-13.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#3 · Spread L

ARI +4.5 -115 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · SEA @ ARI · 100.0%

SEA 31–7 ARI

ARI covers the spread 100% vs SEA 0%. Taking points (+4.5); best -115 at DraftKings.

#4 · Spread W

LV +6.5 -105 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · LV @ LAC · 100.0%

LV 26–14 LAC

LV covers the spread 100% vs LAC 0%. Taking points (+6.5); best -105 at DraftKings.

#5 · Spread L

NYG +7 -105 · DraftKings

Monday, Sep 21 · NYG @ LA · 100.0%

NYG 6–28 LAR

NYG covers the spread 100% vs LA 0%. Taking points (+7); best -105 at DraftKings.

#6 · Total points L

Over 48.5 -118 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · MIN @ CHI · 73.0%

MIN 9–3 CHI (12)

Total: Covers consensus 73% over 48.5. MIN over 100% and CHI over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.

#7 · Total points W

Over 53.5 -120 · DraftKings

Thursday, Sep 17 · DET @ BUF · 70.0%

DET 31–41 BUF (72)

Total: Covers consensus 70% over 53.5. DET over 100% and BUF over 100%. Best -120 at DraftKings.

#8 · Total points L

Over 46.5 -118 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · NO @ BAL · 67.0%

NO 24–17 BAL (41)

Total: Covers consensus 67% over 46.5. NO over 100% and BAL over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.

#9 · Total points W

Over 40.5 -115 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · CLE @ TB · 59.0%

CLE 23–19 TB (42)

Total: Covers consensus 59% over 40.5. CLE over 100% and TB over 100%. Best -115 at DraftKings.

#10 · Total points L

Over 46.5 -108 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · CIN @ HOU · 59.0%

CIN 20–6 HOU (26)

Total: Covers consensus 59% over 46.5. CIN over 100% and HOU over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#11 · Total points W

Under 41.5 -108 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · PIT @ NE · 59.0%

PIT 3–20 NE (23)

Total: Covers consensus 59% under 41.5. PIT under 100% and NE under 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#12 · Total points W

Over 50.5 -108 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · WSH @ DAL · 56.0%

WSH 20–37 DAL (57)

Total: Covers consensus 56% over 50.5. WSH over 100% and DAL over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.

#13 · Total points L

Under 45.5 -112 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · MIA @ SF · 54.0%

MIA 13–35 SF (48)

Total: Covers consensus 54% under 45.5. MIA under 100% and SF under 100%. Best -112 at DraftKings.

#14 · Total points W

Under 41.5 -110 · DraftKings

Sunday, Sep 20 · SEA @ ARI · 51.0%

SEA 31–7 ARI (38)

Total: Covers consensus 51% under 41.5. SEA under 100% and ARI under 100%. Best -110 at DraftKings.

#	Type	Bet	Odds	Book	Cons. %	Score	Result	Why
1	Spread	BUF -4.5 Thursday, Sep 17 · DET @ BUF	-112	DraftKings	100.0	DET 31–41 BUF	W	BUF covers the spread 100% vs DET 0%. Laying points (-4.5); best -112 at DraftKings.
2	Spread	SF -13.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · MIA @ SF	-105	DraftKings	100.0	MIA 13–35 SF	W	SF covers the spread 100% vs MIA 0%. Laying points (-13.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
3	Spread	ARI +4.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · SEA @ ARI	-115	DraftKings	100.0	SEA 31–7 ARI	L	ARI covers the spread 100% vs SEA 0%. Taking points (+4.5); best -115 at DraftKings.
4	Spread	LV +6.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · LV @ LAC	-105	DraftKings	100.0	LV 26–14 LAC	W	LV covers the spread 100% vs LAC 0%. Taking points (+6.5); best -105 at DraftKings.
5	Spread	NYG +7 Monday, Sep 21 · NYG @ LA	-105	DraftKings	100.0	NYG 6–28 LAR	L	NYG covers the spread 100% vs LA 0%. Taking points (+7); best -105 at DraftKings.
6	Total points	Over 48.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · MIN @ CHI	-118	DraftKings	73.0	MIN 9–3 CHI (12)	L	Total: Covers consensus 73% over 48.5. MIN over 100% and CHI over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.
7	Total points	Over 53.5 Thursday, Sep 17 · DET @ BUF	-120	DraftKings	70.0	DET 31–41 BUF (72)	W	Total: Covers consensus 70% over 53.5. DET over 100% and BUF over 100%. Best -120 at DraftKings.
8	Total points	Over 46.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · NO @ BAL	-118	DraftKings	67.0	NO 24–17 BAL (41)	L	Total: Covers consensus 67% over 46.5. NO over 100% and BAL over 100%. Best -118 at DraftKings.
9	Total points	Over 40.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · CLE @ TB	-115	DraftKings	59.0	CLE 23–19 TB (42)	W	Total: Covers consensus 59% over 40.5. CLE over 100% and TB over 100%. Best -115 at DraftKings.
10	Total points	Over 46.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · CIN @ HOU	-108	DraftKings	59.0	CIN 20–6 HOU (26)	L	Total: Covers consensus 59% over 46.5. CIN over 100% and HOU over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
11	Total points	Under 41.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · PIT @ NE	-108	DraftKings	59.0	PIT 3–20 NE (23)	W	Total: Covers consensus 59% under 41.5. PIT under 100% and NE under 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
12	Total points	Over 50.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · WSH @ DAL	-108	DraftKings	56.0	WSH 20–37 DAL (57)	W	Total: Covers consensus 56% over 50.5. WSH over 100% and DAL over 100%. Best -108 at DraftKings.
13	Total points	Under 45.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · MIA @ SF	-112	DraftKings	54.0	MIA 13–35 SF (48)	L	Total: Covers consensus 54% under 45.5. MIA under 100% and SF under 100%. Best -112 at DraftKings.
14	Total points	Under 41.5 Sunday, Sep 20 · SEA @ ARI	-110	DraftKings	51.0	SEA 31–7 ARI (38)	W	Total: Covers consensus 51% under 41.5. SEA under 100% and ARI under 100%. Best -110 at DraftKings.

Days: Thursday, Sep 17 · Sunday, Sep 20 · Monday, Sep 21

Research card, not betting advice. 21+. Confirm starters. Sporterie grades published cards against ESPN box scores.

Odds and consensus from Covers.com. ATS from TeamRankings. Finals from ESPN. Not affiliated with those sites.

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